I had some free time and i started thinking how to beat roulette and what´s funny its that i reached at a +EV value...
I checked all the math i made and i cant find a mistake or any logic Leak...
Well, everione heard about that theory of doubling our bet in case of losing right and i used that as my starting point...
My idea was, to double last bet and add a certain amount like:
1º bet- x
2º bet-2x+x=3x
3º bet-6x+x=7x
4º bet-14x+x=15x
and so on until the 7ºbet where i would restart(betting x) if i ended up losing it
where the 7º bet would be something like: 126x+x
In these 7 bets i would lose 247x
So the P(losing 1 bet)=19/37, therefore the P(losing 7 in a row)=0.011=1%
but i would also lose the 247x if i lose 8, 9, 10.... until the 14º bet where i would lose the double of 247x or 494x..
So i added the P( of losing 7) to the P of losing 8 and so on...
And i reached this results:
P( of losing 7, 8...13)=0.024
i multiplied this number by the loss(-247x):0.024*(-247x)=-5.928x
P(of losing 14,15,...,20)=0.00024
Again: 0.00024*(-494x)=0.19
What represents a total loss of 6.04x in 2.412%
And as i calculated my losses in rows of seven so i did with my profit. in 7 bet i would normally win 7x
Now i ended by caltulating the total:
100%-2.412%=97.59
0.9759*7x=6.83x
And so the Total E.V=6.83x-6.04x=0.79x
So please help me here finding my mistake( if any
)
Last edited by Egua_Danada; 10-05-2014 at 01:06 PM.