There is a prop bet thread in BBV where allegations of collusion have been raised. Any probability experts able to take a look at it and give an opinion as to the odds of the situation arising?
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...op-bet-736624/
Basically two microstakes cash/sng players, with no history of taking shots, jumped several stakes on March 19, the day of the prop bet, and lost a significant amount of cash in suspicious hands to the guy doing the prop bet, gary_neville. It turns out these players are connected to gary_neville and are friends/students/stakees of gary's long time friend Roseeker who was posting in gary's defence in the the thread under two accounts.
Here's how I see it. Out of say 700 days that ptr has been tracking hands these players BOTH decide to make this unprecedented huge jump in stakes on the March 19. Odds of one of them making this jump are 700-1. Therefore odds on both of them doing it are 490000-1. Of all the opponents they played on that day, they both lost the most to gary. I speculated that if the first player, breeezzz, played 8 opponents on that day, it was and 8-1 chance that he would lose the most to gary. I speculated that the other player, stoppedclock played 25 opponents so it was 25-1 that he would lose the most to garry. Taken together, those hypothetical figures mean that it was 200-1 that they would both happen to lost the most to gary.
What do you make of these figures, am I way off, or is this whole incident way too big a coincidence to explain away as pure chance.
Edit: Gary also made his only two 3bets with unsuited junk from the SB/BB out of 30K hands against these two players. One of these hands was what led to the allegations of chip dumping. So from a probability point of view do you reckon these two hands are significant?