NCAA bracket odds - Gambling and Probability

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NCAA bracket odds

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03-25-2010 , 08:40 PM

JJSCOTT2

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,327

I don't know if this had been asked here before so forgive me. Is there a way to figure the odds of picking a perfect bracket in each of 3 scenarios:

1.) you pick every game randoml
2.) you pick the highest seed in every game
3.) you pick based on your feelings about each game

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03-25-2010 , 08:44 PM

Zeno

Le Misanthrope

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,369

Odds are (mostly) the purview of the probability folks, so post moved.....

-Zeno

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03-25-2010 , 08:44 PM

EvilSteve

Midlife Crisis

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 13,195

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJSCOTT2

I don't know if this had been asked here before so forgive me. Is there a way to figure the odds of picking a perfect bracket in each of 3 scenarios:

1.) you pick every game randoml

p = 1/2^63

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2.) you pick the highest seed in every game

Sounds like a statistical research project (how often does a 6 seed beat an 11 seed, etc).

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3.) you pick based on your feelings about each game

p = 1 if you're God.

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03-25-2010 , 09:50 PM

teliot

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 164

Quote:

Originally Posted by EvilSteve

Sounds like a statistical research project (how often does a 6 seed beat an 11 seed, etc).

This information is available on wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Me...st-round_games

Sample size is not perfect though, especially for the rarer matchups.

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