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tough probability question

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03-25-2010 , 03:29 PM

imbroglio

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 4

Hello,

a friend and I took a bet on this one, but we don't know how to calculate it:

suppose a new form of poker with four players that have seven cards each.
there is also a board with five community cards (flop -turn -river).

every player makes the best possible poker hand with 12 cards (his seven cards and the five community cards). how do you calculate the probability that, at showdown, one player has quads and gets beaten by better quads or straight flush?

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03-25-2010 , 05:17 PM

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by imbroglio

You still do combinatorics the same way as for regular hold'em. Is this just for fun or would figuring it out be useful?

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03-25-2010 , 05:30 PM

imbroglio

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 4

Quote:

Originally Posted by spadebidder

You still do combinatorics the same way as for regular hold'em. Is this just for fun or would figuring it out be useful?

it would be useful and fun in the sense that the exact answer would settle our bet on who had the best approximation.

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03-25-2010 , 06:05 PM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

I'm lazy so I'd simulate this. I don't think the math for it is hard, but there's going to be a lot of cases, I think. Like
* how often do you make 2222 and lose to 3333+ or a straight flush?
* how often do you make 3333 and lose to 4444+ or a straight flush?
and so on. There may be a more clever way to do it, can't think of anything off the top of my head. Just dealing out the cards is the easiest way to actually find out imo.

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03-26-2010 , 03:38 AM

Mellor

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 22

Quote:

Originally Posted by RustyBrooks

lol, its a lot easier that that,

All you need to calc is;
How often a player makes quads, and another makes Quads or better

If the OP includes SF over SF as a qualifier it varies

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