Hi guys,

Don't know if this is the correct place, so if this is the case please tell me the correct section.

I would like to ask if my math/thinking process is correct.
I'll give an example:

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Data:
Equity vs OP calling range = 30%
% of time OP fold to a bet = 50%
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Q1: is my bet +EV?


Equity of my bet= Fold equity (FE) + Equity

FE = OP equity if he call*% of time OP fold to a bet=70%*50%= 35%

Equity of my bet=35%+30%=65%

IF I bet 5 on a pot of 5, the min P need for win 50%--> my bet is +EV
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Q2: Is my all-in semibluff +EV?

Same assumption of above.

I don't know if it is correct to compare, assuming that the data above are taking into consideration that we are going all-in, the Equity of my bet (65%) with the min P need calculated using as total pot the current one + effective stack, OR just the current pot.
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Thank for your help!!
Cheers

EV is calculated by summing the multiplier of probability (another word for "equity") and reward (or loss) for all possible scenarios, not by summing only the probabilities. basically, you need to know how much you win/lose and how often.

you need to identify all possible scenarios, which are 3:
- you make a bet and opponent folds
- you bet and he calls, you win in the end
- you bet and he calls, you lose the hand

for first case: 0.5*5 --> if he folds (50%), you win 5
second: (1-0.5)*0.3*(5+5) --> he calls 50%, you win pot of 5 + the 5 that he calls you with
third: -(1-0.5)*(1-0.3)*5 --> he calls 50%, you lose only 5 that you bet, what's already in the pot is considered as nobody's money

so, EV = +2.25. not sure what you mean with Q1 and Q2, it's the same thing really.

edit: what i've written is definitely for Q2. if it's not an all-in bet (if that's what you mean with Q1?), then things are a bit more complicated.

With Q1 I was considering the case in which we are not all-in but im realizing that the decision tree will be really big and therefore we will need other assumption, such as what we estimated we can win/loose on the other streets.