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Multideck Probabilities Multideck Probabilities

08-20-2015 , 12:32 PM
Hello!

How many combinations of three of kind? 3 Decks, we draw 5 cards.

I came up with =13*COMB(12;3)*COMB(12;2)*12*12=27181440

WizardOfOdds says:27150552

I think mine is wrong, but why?

Please, help.
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08-20-2015 , 12:53 PM
With 3 decks it's possible to have 3 of a kind and a flush at the same time, in which case that doesn't count as 3 of a kind.

The number of trips that make flushes is 3*C(13,3)*4*3^2

Subtract that from your answer and the result is the Wiz' answer.
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08-20-2015 , 08:05 PM
Oh, yes. Didn't think about the flush. Thank you.

How do you count the same with five decks?
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08-21-2015 , 03:40 PM
3*C(13,3)*[C(20,3)*20^2 - 4*C(5,3)*5^2] = 390,390,000

Actually, it depends on what is meant by "combinations". The above would be the numerator if you were finding the probability, but if you just want the distinguishable combinations the number is less. For instance, the above counts {7,7,7} more than once because it treats each card as distinct even if the two cards have the same rank and suit.

Now I also notice the same thing happens in the 3-deck example (but to a lesser extent). The Wiz, however, did not take it into consideration, so his interest must have been on the probability numerator.
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08-23-2015 , 07:45 AM
Yes, I was looking the numerator. Thank you very much.
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