hello,

can some math-guru please check my equation for the following? statmanhal?


lets say villain open raises to 2$, theres 1$ BB and 0.5$SB and 1$ Antes in the Pot. so before we decide to 3-bet theres 4.5$ in the pot.

we 3bet to 6$, villain 4bets to 18$, so now in total there is 6$+18$+2.5$
in the pot = 26.5$.


we have 50$ behind and we decide to 5bet shove all-in. we assume villain folds 60% of the time and when we're called, we have 37% Equity.


im not sure which of the 2 equations is the right one:


1) EV(5bet)= 26.5$*0.6 + [(50$+2.5$)*0.37 - (50$)*0.63]*0.4


or


2) EV(5bet)=26.5$*0.6 + [(50$+6$+2.5$)*0.37 - (50$)*0.63]*0.4



would be great to know and thanks a lot in advance!

Yeah, the amount you win if villain calls your 5-bet and your hand holds up includes your 3-bet of $6. That's because that $6 is no longer yours - it belongs to the pot if villain 4-bets, so it becomes part of your winnings.

TYVM!

Actually neither of these is right. I originally posted that the second one was right and induced an error from statmanhal. You're in for $56, he's in for $18, so he has to call $38, not $32. So if he calls and you win, you win $26.50 + $38 = $64.50. Or another way to look at it is you're raising to $56, so you're winning $56 from him, plus your original $6 back, plus the $2.50 for a total of $64.50.

EV(5bet)=26.5$*0.6 + [(26.50$+38$)*0.37 - (50$)*0.63]*0.4

OR

EV(5bet)=26.5$*0.6 + [(56$+6$+2.5$)*0.37 - (50$)*0.63]*0.4

Hah, that's what I get for trusting you without really looking at the posting . But, my comment that hero wins his 3 bet back is correct as you pointed out. I didn't look at this last post carefully either so maybe there is a double inducement coming.

hm thats interesting. i mean it keeps getting better for me in terms of value but with the part of the equation that has changed to our advantage, i thought we could only win as much as we originially had (56$) PLUS what's in the pot from people who put in money but folded (BB,SB,ANTE).

so IMO if we add 6$ for our 3bet AND 6$ for his 3bet, the ammount we get is more than what we are all-in for eventually (56$ our stack total, 56$ his call + 2.5$ SB/BB/Ante), so I wonder how thats possible.

but u're the experts.

are you guys a 100% certain about this?

It's right. You win more than you're all-in for because you win what he's in for which is $56, plus you get your own $6 back, plus you win the antes and blinds for another $2.50. So $56 + $6 + $2.50 = $64.50. That's the value of the whole pot after he calls minus your $50.

thanks. well tbh i just dont understand how that is possible but i guess you know better than me!

Just work out how big the pot is when he calls your $50 bet. The amount that you win by going all-in is that amount minus your own $50 bet.