Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Probability Discussions of probability theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-11-2017, 09:33 PM   #1
danny356
centurion
 
danny356's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 189
match play EV

The casino gives you $100 in matchplay for either blackjack or baccarat

whats the EV of this $100? i think the house wins ~51% of the time so its $49 in ev?

the house edge in these games is 1% so does that mean i can wager 4900 worth of bets for a EV of $0?
danny356 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2017, 10:37 PM   #2
RustyBrooks
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 22,974
Re: match play EV

Moved from poker theory.

What are the play requirements for the game?

I'm not an expert but if there are no play requirements then you could split the money up however you like and make a series of bets to get the same EV, as long as you don't exceed $100 in bets. For example, you could bet $100 1 time or $10 10 times or $1 100 times

However, I would expect there to be a play requirement in terms of hours or number of hands. If you end up having to wager more than a total of $100 then your EV will be less than $49, which is the EV of wagering exactly $100.

If you can wager exactly $100, then the differences in how you choose to bet basically boil down to "locking in" your EV with lower variance (more, smaller bets) or gambling for a bigger potential payoff (less, larger bets)
RustyBrooks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2017, 11:28 PM   #3
danny356
centurion
 
danny356's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 189
Re: match play EV

theres no set amount of hours or hands you need to play just that you have to match the bet for example

if you use the entire $100 match play you have to match at least $100 to it

-if you win you get paid $200 and your bet return and match play card destroyed

-if you lose your bet is taken and you gain $0 and have your match play destroyed.

-if you tie.. no idea
You can Cashout immediately after winning and lock in that +$49 in EV if you wish

my question is how much do we have to wager to bring our EV from +$49 to $0? If the house edge is 1% that means we can cycle to 4900 worth of bets and be neutral ev, no?
danny356 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2017, 02:31 PM   #4
RustyBrooks
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 22,974
Re: match play EV

So I'm a little confused. You can only use this $100 token once, and you have to bet at least $100 of your own to go with it, but can bet more?

I think I disagree with your logic a little regarding EV:

If you win, you win $200, yes. But if you lose, you lose $100 - both the $100 token and your actual $100. So the EV for a $100 bet would be
EV = 0.49*200 - 0.51*-100 = 47

I really can't make any sense of your second question. Are you saying, OK, I'll play 1 $100 match bet (my $100 + their $100), and then N $100 regular bets (my $100), how high is N before my EV is 0?
RustyBrooks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2017, 03:42 PM   #5
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Didace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 11,442
Re: match play EV

Quote:
Originally Posted by danny356 View Post
You can Cashout immediately after winning and lock in that +$49 in EV if you wish
What does this mean?
Didace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 10:01 AM   #6
Yoshi63
old hand
 
Yoshi63's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: sandstorm
Posts: 1,919
Re: match play EV

A 49/51 game is 2% house-edge, not 1%. Blackjack is usually 1% or less depending on rules.

Rusty, I think he is asking how much he can continue to play afterwards. It's a promotion and they probably would frown upon placing one match play bet and leaving, even if it's technically allowed.

Danny, it depends whether or not you are still going to "cycle" the bets after an initial loss. If you're planning to walk out after losing your match-play bet, then you can play around $9800 in bets after a win. But if you are going to continue playing regardless of outcome, then you can only wager around $4900.

Every additional bet you place is losing money, so the less often you engage in doing so, the more $ you can "afford" to bet and still break even.
Yoshi63 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:26 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online