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Old 09-24-2008, 07:09 PM   #31
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Re: Martingale system.

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Originally Posted by MSPChris View Post
ignoring the 0, the odds of 24 blacks in a row are 16,777,216:1 against.

Add the 0 and the odds become even more severe.

If I saw 24 blacks in a row, I'd call the gaming commission because the wheel is rigged.
what if it came.....

red, black, black, black, red, black, black, red, red, black, red, black, red, red, red, red, red, red, black, red, red, black, black, black

would you call the commission then?
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Old 09-25-2008, 07:08 PM   #32
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Re: Martingale system.

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Originally Posted by Conradas View Post
Would the martingale system work if one had an infinite bankroll and there were no betting limits?
Add infinite life and patience to that, and the answer is yes.

Death works kinda like a betting limit...
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Old 09-25-2008, 07:49 PM   #33
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Re: Martingale system.

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Originally Posted by Pokerlogist View Post
Maybe there are some other games where the Martingale works in a finite number of trials. Just for fun here's a simple game of chance: The house shows the player 2 red cards and 1 blue card and shuffles them and deals them face down and reveals each, one a time, until all three are shown. No cards are replaced. The house allows the player to bet any amount on the showing of a blue card on each of the three streets. To participate, the player must bet some amount on the first card being blue but can pass or bet on all other streets.

Compare the EV of betting one constant unit on each of the three streets to the EV of a Martingale system ( doubles up bet size after a loss but pass when your bankroll gets ahead).
That's not the best way.

Make min bets on the first two cards. Two thirds of the time you won't see the last card, but when you do, you'll know it's blue. Then you bet your whole bankroll.
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Old 09-26-2008, 10:58 AM   #34
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Re: Martingale system.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist View Post
Maybe there are some other games where the Martingale works in a finite number of trials. Just for fun here's a simple game of chance: The house shows the player 2 red cards and 1 blue card and shuffles them and deals them face down and reveals each, one a time, until all three are shown. No cards are replaced. The house allows the player to bet any amount on the showing of a blue card on each of the three streets. To participate, the player must bet some amount on the first card being blue but can pass or bet on all other streets.

Compare the EV of betting one constant unit on each of the three streets to the EV of a Martingale system ( doubles up bet size after a loss but pass when your bankroll gets ahead).
Isn't this just saying "make bigger bets when your edge is bigger"? That doesn't really have anything to do with Martingale because you're making different bets each time, and you only have 3 streets to bet on.

Like AKA Squared said the game doesn't even make sense anyway, since it allows you to bet on something you know the outcome of.
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Old 09-26-2008, 06:09 PM   #35
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Re: Martingale system.

I have another Martingale system question.

Suppose you had a +EV. Perhaps you have a roulette wheel and you know a very rich person who wants to use the reverse Martingale making a color bet.

What risk of ruin do you have for any given bankroll size?
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