Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > General Gambling > Probability

Probability Discussions of probability theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-16-2008, 10:07 AM   #1
newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 40
Martingale system.

Would the martingale system work if one had an infinite bankroll and there were no betting limits?
Conradas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 10:12 AM   #2
Pooh-Bah
 
McSeafield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: banned by Götz von Berlichingen!
Posts: 4,470
Re: Martingale system.

Clear answer: Yes
McSeafield is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 11:46 AM   #3
Pooh-Bah
 
McSeafield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: banned by Götz von Berlichingen!
Posts: 4,470
Re: Martingale system.

In French Roulette (with one Zero) you can normally double your bets only 10 times. You lose a hole Martingale on an average in approx. 3.139 Coups. You lose then 2047 chips and the average loss rate =~ 2047/3139 = 0,65 chips per coup. If you want to minimize the risk of such a loss to 25% you should in no case play more than 1069 coups.
McSeafield is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 11:58 AM   #4
newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 40
Re: Martingale system.

But if you kept on playing for example roulette an infinite amount of time, wouldnt you soon or later end up on black (when you have your money on red) every single time and lose an infinte amount of money?
How can you be a favorite against the house if this is the case?
Conradas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 12:23 PM   #5
banned
 
HaileysHero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Rhode Island 45min from Foxwoods
Posts: 79
Re: Martingale system.

You have the same odds of hitting the same number or color everytime you release the ball. It doesnt matter if red hits 10x in a row, it is just as likely to hit the 11th as it was the 10th.
HaileysHero is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 12:31 PM   #6
newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 40
Re: Martingale system.

Yeah, but how is that relevant?
Conradas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 12:32 PM   #7
Pooh-Bah
 
McSeafield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: banned by Götz von Berlichingen!
Posts: 4,470
Re: Martingale system.

The hole topic is very complex and difficult to explain and/or to understand. The short answer is: You have no long term chance to win with the Martingale. I mentioned the above figures only to give you a certain impression how often this happens on an average or as a warning.

You can try it vice versa and even then you have no chance because it is very difficult to catch a very long series of black/red or whatever. The biggest problem however is always the zero in French Roulette and the double-zero in American Roulette.
McSeafield is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 01:10 PM   #8
newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 40
Re: Martingale system.

I understand of course that I cant use this system, but are you saying it couldnt be beat even in the impossible scenario I mentioned?
Conradas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 02:37 PM   #9
journeyman
 
AKA Squared's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: away from home without a deuce
Posts: 254
Re: Martingale system.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Conradas View Post
But if you kept on playing for example roulette an infinite amount of time, wouldnt you soon or later end up on black (when you have your money on red) every single time and lose an infinte amount of money?
How can you be a favorite against the house if this is the case?
You can't lose an infinite amount of money. No matter how many times you double up, you can always keep going higher. That's why it's called "infinite": there's no upper bound. When there is an upper bound to your bet sizes, either the table limit or the size of your bankroll, the Martingale fails. But if there is no upper limit, any chance of winning will let you Martingale successfully. Which is why no casino will ever remove the tables limits and extend you unlimited credit.

Last edited by AKA Squared; 08-16-2008 at 02:40 PM. Reason: Of course you might not live long enough.
AKA Squared is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 02:42 PM   #10
Pooh-Bah
 
McSeafield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: banned by Götz von Berlichingen!
Posts: 4,470
Re: Martingale system.

I said:
Quote:
Clear answer: Yes
The longest series of blacks I have seen and counted live in roulette was 24. I have also seen series like 21 black after 22 times red after a very long series of indermittences. Lets assume even far longer series happen quite often. I think series of 25 or 26 times the same color can happen if you play long enough. The same applies for winning or losing streaks whatever you play. Let us assume in a time period of one Million of years much longer series will happen.

You said, "if one had an infinite bankroll and there were not betting limits" than I assume he is rich enough even to pay the inputs for the Martigingale in case of a losing streak like 50 times the wrong chance. And he should than win after 51 coups. I do not want to calculate how much money this is. I know it is uncountable. Please simulate this problem in your computer with Excel or Basic. It is easy to find out, that you will win always with the Martingale under such assumptions if the coups are true random, if you play whatever you want randomly and if you are rich enough to pay the input.
McSeafield is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2008, 04:30 PM   #11
journeyman
 
AKA Squared's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: away from home without a deuce
Posts: 254
Re: Martingale system.

Quote:
Originally Posted by McSeafield View Post
You said, "if one had an infinite bankroll and there were not betting limits" than I assume he is rich enough even to pay the inputs for the Martigingale in case of a losing streak like 50 times the wrong chance. And he should than win after 51 coups.
No one has enough money to double up after 50 losses. If the House of Saud and the U.S. federal government formed a syndicate to grind $1 bets on a European wheel using the Martingale, they would eventually go bust. The bankroll would need to be literally infinite, which concretely means playing on unlimited credit.

Also, on a random wheel the previous spins have no impact on future spins. After 50 results come up the same way I'd be betting with the trend because by then the results are probably nonrandom.
AKA Squared is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2008, 11:46 AM   #12
Pooh-Bah
 
McSeafield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: banned by Götz von Berlichingen!
Posts: 4,470
Re: Martingale system.

I think we have the same opinion. But a very long losing streak like much more than 30 times the wrong side of a single chance can happen if you place your bets always according to the trend. However you will never experience such a result in your life. You have to be alive an infinitive period of time and play on nearly all tables on this word at the same time to have a chance to see something like that. However, I have experienced this series of 24 times black during my 5th casino visit already and have played according to the trend.
McSeafield is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2008, 05:43 PM   #13
Pooh-Bah
 
DarkMagus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Halifax, NS
Posts: 3,570
Re: Martingale system.

if you have an unlimited bankroll, gambling is meaningless because no matter what you do you start with $infinity and end with $infinity.

god i hate talking about gambling with an infinite roll and i wish people would stop thinking that it's useful, interesting, or even meaningful to discuss such a topic.
DarkMagus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2008, 06:05 PM   #14
Pooh-Bah
 
McSeafield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: banned by Götz von Berlichingen!
Posts: 4,470
Re: Martingale system.

Sometimes it is helpful to have such useless discussions. Some people could get a better feeling for reality in gambling.
McSeafield is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2008, 01:34 AM   #15
journeyman
 
AKA Squared's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: away from home without a deuce
Posts: 254
Re: Martingale system.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkMagus View Post
if you have an unlimited bankroll, gambling is meaningless because no matter what you do you start with $infinity and end with $infinity.

god i hate talking about gambling with an infinite roll and i wish people would stop thinking that it's useful, interesting, or even meaningful to discuss such a topic.
You blackmail several casino employees. Rather than embezzle the money outright, they...
AKA Squared is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:15 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2010, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.2.0 ©2008, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright © 2009, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
Message Boards and Forums Directory