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Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row?

07-11-2017 , 04:57 PM
I'm sure this is easy math for you guys, but I haven't taken math since HS and just know basic gambling related math.

If you have a 33% chance to win something, what is the probability you lose 7 times in a row?

Can you post the formula as well?

Thanks
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-11-2017 , 05:15 PM
Are these the only seven times you have this 33% chance? Because if you do it enough times the probability it will happen at least once is 100%.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-11-2017 , 10:48 PM
Yes, these are the only times.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-12-2017 , 11:39 AM
What's the probability you lose the first one?

What's the probability you lose the first two? If you can answer this, you can answer your question.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-12-2017 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
What's the probability you lose the first one?

What's the probability you lose the first two? If you can answer this, you can answer your question.
Wording this slightly differently OP, if you know how to calculate the probability of n statistically independent events all occurring, then you know how to solve this problem. Well, you'd also have to know how to determine the probability of losing once from the probability of winning once, but if you can't do that....

Last edited by STinLA; 07-12-2017 at 06:26 PM.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-12-2017 , 08:26 PM
1/3^7

is it .0457% of the time you lose all 7 in a row?

My orginal example had nothing to do with roulette, I don't play in the pits, but that leads me to this question now.

So would the odds of losing 3, 1-12 spins, in a row be 12/38^3 or you will lose all 3 3.1% of the time?

Last edited by Mr.Jones; 07-12-2017 at 08:42 PM.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-12-2017 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Jones
1/3^7
This is the probability of *winning* 7 in a row according to your OP, not losing 7 in a row.

Quote:
If you have a 33% chance to win something
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-12-2017 , 11:26 PM
It should be clarified, that is the chance to lose the next 7 attempts starting now. It has no applicability to a cherry picked historical series.

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Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-13-2017 , 01:23 PM
About 1 in 1000
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-13-2017 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Jones
1/3^7

is it .0457% of the time you lose all 7 in a row?

My orginal example had nothing to do with roulette, I don't play in the pits, but that leads me to this question now.

So would the odds of losing 3, 1-12 spins, in a row be 12/38^3 or you will lose all 3 3.1% of the time?
3.1% is the chance for WINNING 3 in a row.

(26/38)^3 is the prob. of losing 3 in a row

The probability of winning w and losing n-w in n independent trials is

C(n,w)*(p^w)*q^(n-w)

where p is the winning chance on 1 independent trial.

This is called the binomial distribution. Look on any stat site.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-16-2017 , 12:22 PM
What's the probability of losing 20 in a row? I degened over this last week and have bought a total of 20, $10 scratch off lottery tickets, from various places and days / times.

I haven't won even a $10 break even on a single ticket, and according to the posted odds on the back of them it's 1 in 3 of winning.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-16-2017 , 12:59 PM
OK, so you are a little unlucky. But it's 100% that there is a random string of 20 losers in a row within the population of the lottery tickets. It just happened to be you.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote
07-16-2017 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Jones
What's the probability of losing 20 in a row? I degened over this last week and have bought a total of 20, $10 scratch off lottery tickets, from various places and days / times.

I haven't won even a $10 break even on a single ticket, and according to the posted odds on the back of them it's 1 in 3 of winning.
3324 to 1 for all 20 tickets to lose in a random sample of 20 tickets. Which isn't very rare considering they probably print 100K of that ticket a week.
Losing a 33% chance 7 times in a row? Quote

      
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