small stakes SNG - played ~55 hands HU with villain who folded to most raises, paid off Quads in a big way, folded on 10-high board to my J high 3/4 pot bluff, etc. At one point I had chip lead 16,347 > 1653. IOW I felt I was in control - except for losing 7/8 all ins pre. These were the only hands that got all in pre.

Here are the hand equities. What is the right way to think about the variance of these 8 hands as a set, compared to the average equity of each hand?

QT < K9 42% / 57% (slight dog)
55 < 78 49% / 49% (flip)
K8 < 67 65% / 35% (fav)
2T < AK 34% / 65% (dog)
Q9 < A2 45% / 54% (slight dog)
AT < QQ 29% / 71% (dog)
37 < A4 40% / 59% (slight dog)

Q8 > 76 62% / 37% (fav, only winner)

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Hero avg. equity 46% / Villain avg. equity 47%

Hero loses 7/8 all ins, a 13% win rate

Villain wins 7/8 all ins, an 87% win rate

Hero had > chips in 6/8 hands

I've done some quick maths on this and whilst there are some imperfect assumptions I think it should prove robust enough

Simplistically, there are 8 hands and 256 (2^8) combinations of outcome (ignoring ties and the occasions where the bigger stack wins and ends the contest)

The average that you quoted for the villain was low, I calculate it as 53% (vs 46% for Hero)

If each hand is assumed to be dealt out at the average equity (splitting the remaining tie equity across win & lose) then hero could expect to win

0 of 8 hands - 0.7%
1x - 4.8% (for which there are 8 of the 256 possible combinations)
2x - 14.5%
3x - 24.9%
4x - 26.7%
5x - 18.3%
6x - 7.9%
7x - 1.9%
8x - 0.2%

The expectation is for Hero to win c3.7/8 hands, with a standard deviation of +/- 1.4

To have only won once is practically 2 standard deviations from the mean, so a long way from the norm

Thank you!