They said I multiply the bankroll times the probability and that is the amount I bet. They didn't mention what type of staking method this was. Would this be kelly criterion that they were talking about?
f = (bp - q) / b
b is your odds in b:1 format
p is your chance to win
q is your chance to lose
The method actually doesn't make any kind of sense at all unless you make assumptions about payout. Like I guess if the payout is 1:1 then
f = p-q
which is closer to their estimate, but theirs would still be wrong. If it was, for example, a pure coin flip, p=q=0.5 and f = 0, i.e. you should bet 0% of your bankroll (not a ludicrous 50%)
