HU SNG loses 7/8 All In Pre: right way to calculate short term variance?
small stakes SNG - played ~55 hands HU with villain who folded to most raises, paid off Quads in a big way, folded on 10-high board to my J high 3/4 pot bluff, etc. At one point I had chip lead 16,347 > 1653. IOW I felt I was in control - except for losing 7/8 all ins pre. These were the only hands that got all in pre.
Here are the hand equities. What is the right way to think about the variance of these 8 hands as a set, compared to the average equity of each hand?
QT < K9 42% / 57% (slight dog)
55 < 78 49% / 49% (flip)
K8 < 67 65% / 35% (fav)
2T < AK 34% / 65% (dog)
Q9 < A2 45% / 54% (slight dog)
AT < QQ 29% / 71% (dog)
37 < A4 40% / 59% (slight dog)
Q8 > 76 62% / 37% (fav, only winner)
Hero avg. equity 46% / Villain avg. equity 47%
Hero loses 7/8 all ins, a 13% win rate
Villain wins 7/8 all ins, an 87% win rate
Hero had > chips in 6/8 hands