Quote:
Originally Posted by nomdeplume
Rufus, thanks for replying.
Does the initial opening range actually make any difference to this calculation? I mean obviously it would if the raiser was opening a tighter range than {66+, AT+, KQ}, but since this is a steal situation I was assuming that his opening range was looser than this.
Why do we need to know the opening range at all? Won't the answer be the same regardless of how loosely he opens? I don't get it.
The tighter his opening range is, the more he's going to call. That shifts the percentages in your calculation. For example, if he opens with exactly his calling range, then he'd always call, and your EV would be:
.334 * 18 - .666 * 18 = approx -6
I can't really follow the commentary that people make about games all that well, but it also looks like you're assuming that there are dead big and small blind wagers in the pot, so you need to include those on the upside of your calculation - since you'd win 19.5 bb rather than 18. (The error is roughly .04 BB, so it's not that much of a deal, but it will matter more with a tighter opening range.)