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how to interpret the outcome of EV analysis how to interpret the outcome of EV analysis

05-27-2016 , 05:42 PM
I calculated the EV of 2 different lines:

1) We bet the Turn and we bet the River

2) We bet the Turn and we check the River


I calculated both and 1) returned a profit of 7$, while 2) returned a profit of 5$. So 1) is slightly more profitable but it also invests almost 3 times as much.

I read that looking at the ROI of single hands or betting sequences wouldnt make sense, but wouldnt that be the only way to tell, which line to take?

Wouldnt then 2), although slightly less profitable, always be our best choice?
how to interpret the outcome of EV analysis Quote
05-27-2016 , 07:59 PM
No, roi on a hand doesn't make much sense. You don't win roi, you win ev.
how to interpret the outcome of EV analysis Quote
05-27-2016 , 11:45 PM
ROI is a dumb metric because you can't use the unbet money in your stack for anything else while you're playing the hand.
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05-28-2016 , 09:03 AM
hmm... I dont understand this . Let's say we're playing a tournament, we have 3000 chips and we're on the river, we calculate that if we go all-in, we win 500 chips. We also know that if we bet 1500, we win 400 chips, so slightly less. Now which is the better play?
Wouldnt we rather win less but remain in the tournament, the times we lose? Dont we have to put what we're risking into relation to what we're winning?
how to interpret the outcome of EV analysis Quote
05-28-2016 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acryl2
hmm... I dont understand this . Let's say we're playing a tournament, we have 3000 chips and we're on the river, we calculate that if we go all-in, we win 500 chips. We also know that if we bet 1500, we win 400 chips, so slightly less. Now which is the better play?
Wouldnt we rather win less but remain in the tournament, the times we lose? Dont we have to put what we're risking into relation to what we're winning?
If you didn't have a giant edge when you sat down for the tournament and you're far from the money, shove and it's not even close. If you're playing way over your roll or have to deal with ICM considerations, things change, but ask the question in that context, not "ROI" which is still stupid.
how to interpret the outcome of EV analysis Quote
06-03-2016 , 04:56 PM
yup. Because of because of the risk of getting knocked out of the money, tourney chips are played different than cash game dollars.
how to interpret the outcome of EV analysis Quote
07-22-2016 , 03:05 PM
If the % of winning is the same, but if #1 is much more being better then the risk of your stack then 1 is better
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