Originally Posted by northeastbeast
So I've been working on this betting system and I feel like I might have a breakthrough. The thing is I'm not sure how to determine the probability of a given result. In the following screen shot I started with 1000 chips and bet in 25 chip increments. I'm not going to reveal how I bet but the end result was that I was up 19k. Just in case you are wondering I did not win a bunch at the beginning and then flat bet for the rest of the hands.
More info: I bet on player the entire time.
What are the odds of this result?
Yes, Any "betting" system can increase your win rates to way over 80%.
Any form of a Martingale, increase bet after a loss or a D'Alembert, where one decreases bet after a loss and only increases after a win, will produce many small wins but the downside is the longer you play, the higher the probability
that your betting system will have a very large loss.
Your image you provided is from the Wizard of Odds website and his java program has an infinite amount of decks.
Seems to me you will never find that in a B&M casino or even online casino where the cards mostly are shuffled after each hand.
The image you provided showed 3200+ hands, about 40 shoes of play, but you do not show any stats of where your bankroll has been.
The game you play allows a negative bankroll, so how much of a bankroll did you need to survive any downswing?
Real casinos have maximun bets that you have to adjust any betting system for.
So since you are not going to share your betting system, and I am 100% certain it is nothing new, unless it deals with relative frequency or cumulative frequency betting, the odds of your results can not be calculated.
If one flat bets, never changing your bets, you can use a binomial distribution calculator to answer your question.
Again, all the math, computer and gaming experts that have come before you using super computers to find ways to "beat the casino" have all failed.
But it may take you losing a lot of real money before you learn the lessons gained from the past.
And you can easily buy you own shoe and 8 decks of cards, put your results in Excel and see for yourself what would happen in a real casino!