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04-09-2009 , 03:32 PM

Spasms

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 99

Just looking at a screenshot of my first royal flush on stars from a few years ago. What is the probability of being dealt AK of spades and the flop coming TJQ of spades?

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04-09-2009 , 04:26 PM

Tom1975

arbitrary and capricious

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 17,723

dealt AK spades = 1 in 1326
Flop Royal = 1 in 19600

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04-23-2009 , 01:34 AM

Tigerpat

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 63

and it follows that: 1/1326 * 1/19600= 1/2,598,960. (since there is only one royal flush of spades)

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04-23-2009 , 02:19 PM

VBAces

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,474

so you should expect this about once a day

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04-28-2009 , 06:43 AM

chh

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 4,059

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tigerpat

and it follows that: 1/1326 * 1/19600= 1/2,598,960. (since there is only one royal flush of spades)

incorrect. it would be 1/25 989 600, you re missing a 0.

In realitythe chance to flop a royal when you have J

+ is 19600, but the chance to be dealt J

+ is 10/1326, and the chance to be dealt any JTs+ is 40/1326, so the chance to flop a royal if you push allin blind is 1/649740

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04-28-2009 , 09:55 AM

jay_shark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,655

Quote:

Originally Posted by chh

incorrect. it would be 1/25 989 600, you re missing a 0.

In realitythe chance to flop a royal when you have J

+ is 19600, but the chance to be dealt J

+ is 10/1326, and the chance to be dealt any JTs+ is 40/1326, so the chance to flop a royal if you push allin blind is 1/649740

Op specifically asked for the probability that you're dealt AK of spades and then flop a royal flush. Tom's answer is right given the question that was asked.

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