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If you are a low-handicapper and play 1,000 rounds in your life, according to Scheid, you have a 20-percent chance of recording an ace.
Assuming independence, this implies 1/4,482 chance of getting a hole-in-one in a round of golf. However, since it also says:
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[The odds of a]. . .low-handicapper making an ace: 5,000 to 1
I assume the 20% is just rounding (it should be closer to 18%). But then it says:
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If you play 5,000 rounds, your odds are 1:1.
Which does not make sense. At 5,000 to 1 for each round, it should be a 63% chance, or about 1 to 2 in your favor. At 20% for each 1,000 rounds, it should be a 67% chance.
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Two players from the same foursome acing the same hole: 17 million to 1
This clearly cannot mean given a particular hole. It only makes sense if it is the odds of this happening on any hole during one round. Assume there are k holes per round with significant hole-in-one possibilities. The chance of a single golfer getting a hole-in-one on one of these holes is 1/(5,000k). The chance of 2 out of 4 golfers doing it is 6/(5,000k)^2. The chance of this happening at some point during the round is 6/(5,000^2*k). If this is 1/17,000,000 then k=4. That seems reasonable, and I think is the basis of the calculation.
Yeah my earlier calculation was wrong because it was based on 500 million rounds, which is 1.5 to 2 billion hole in one opportunities. Divide 1.5 billion by 15 back to back aces a year and you get 100 million to one, not 33 million to one.That puts the odds of a single ace at 10000 to one assuming indepence.
