Re: help with ev calculation
Here is the general EV equation for a lead-bet shove by you on any street:
EV = fe * Pot + (1-fe) * [eq(Pot+2*Bet) Ė Bet],
fe = fold equity
eq = win probability
Pot = amount in pot before your shove
Bet = your all in bet based on the effective stack size
The equation for a shove-raise is a bit more complicated but of the same general form.
Your holding along with an estimate of villainís range determines the equity and can be found through PokerStove or some other equity calculator. If you know how many winning outs you have based on the holdings and board, then you can use the simple 2x or 4x rule.
For example, if you have the nut flush draw on the turn, then you have 9 outs so your estimated equity is about 2*9 = 18% assuming villain will not hit a full house or better on the river. Since the pot and bet amounts are known and the equity often can be estimated, plugging these values into the above equation will determine the minimum fold equity needed to make a +EV play. Iíve developed graphs of required fold equity for various generalized situations based on the ratio of bet to pot.
Doing all this while actively playing is not always easy but reviewing hand histories and doing the calcs will give you insight for when such bets can be profitable and hopefully you will start to get a good gut feel for how to act.
Hope this helps.