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 06-22-2012, 12:33 AM #1 grinder   Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 664 flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop flop 789, table is 4 handed, raise and a call 2 players see flop. they both flop a straight one guy had 5 6 the other had 10 j. what are the chances odds probability of that?
 06-22-2012, 11:51 AM #2 adept   Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Colorado Posts: 849 Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop We need to nail down your question a bit more. Are you asking "Given that the flop came 789 and two players saw it, what are the chances that they both flop a straight?" Even this isn't enough - we need ranges for both players. I can take a stab at it by assuming that the raiser has a hand in the top 30%, and the caller has a hand in the top 30-50%: ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.16 Professional) Holdem, Generic syntax Board - 7s8c9d PLAYER_1 30% PLAYER_2 30%-50% 1000000 trials (randomized) How often do(es) 2 players 5-card hand type is a straight on the flop 0.1486% (1486)
 06-22-2012, 12:34 PM #3 grinder   Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 664 Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop Yea thanks. You guys always ask such good questions, and I'm not really sure how to answer. I think what i meant was 4 players at a table 2 players fold and 2 players see the flop! first question i guess would be what are the odds/chances that 1 player is dealt 56 and the other is dealt 10 j? then what are odds/chances that a flop of 789 happens? then can you just add those 2 results together to see what the chance is of that whole thing happening?
 06-22-2012, 12:38 PM #4 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Psychology Department Posts: 7,430 Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop What are the odds that one player will be dealt A3 and another player dealt QT and the flop comes 493?
06-22-2012, 12:40 PM   #5
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Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop

Quote:
 Originally Posted by apkrnewb flop 789, table is 4 handed, raise and a call 2 players see flop. they both flop a straight one guy had 5 6 the other had 10 j. what are the chances odds probability of that?
what's the point ?

 06-22-2012, 01:12 PM #6 veteran   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,342 Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop I understand the skepticism of those questioning OP's question. But, he asked so here's the answer (if I didn't mess up). Whether it's useful or not, I make no judgement for I don't know why he's asking. Maybe he has a bet, maybe he's just curious, maybe ??? OP might want to look at recent discussions by Sherman and others on similar questions - e.g a question on odds of qq four times in a row. Assuming two players would play any two cards, the chance for one having 6 5 and one having J T is 0.032%. Given those holdings, the chance of a 9 8 7 flop is 0.37%. The odds of both happening is about 850,000 to 1 against. Whether these results apply to the particular situation, depends on what assumptions are made. Last edited by statmanhal; 06-22-2012 at 01:19 PM.
 06-22-2012, 10:30 PM #7 grinder   Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 664 Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop Thanks guys! What i described happened last night at the wsop. A couple of my buddies were saying how easy it should have been for the guy with (56) to fold when Antonio (10 J) went all in, i just laughed and said the odds must be astronomical for what happened to happen. I knew if you guys had the time you could come up with an answer that i figured would be rather astronomical. thanks again cheers
 06-23-2012, 01:41 AM #8 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Psychology Department Posts: 7,430 Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop The odds are irrelevant for the person's decision. The decision should be based on other things, like would this person play the hand the same way if he/she had less than the nuts?
 06-23-2012, 03:10 AM #9 grinder   Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 664 Re: flop 789 table is 4 handed 2 players see flop ^ Exactly! Is villian going to have other hands often enough that are not 10 J that he would go allin with (this was a tourney not a cash game)

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