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computing expected entries based on duplicates computing expected entries based on duplicates

09-05-2007 , 01:17 PM
For the Full Tilt Poker lucky 7s promotion can someone help determine the estimated number of entries per day based on the number of multiple winners?

Or some confidence interval estimating the number of entrants?

4 days.
77 winners per day.
6 people have won on 2 days.
no people have won on more than 2 days.


------ raw data of winners if it helps ------
Days 1-4, 6 players have won twice ...

10sWild
20 Regular FALSE
35888853 FALSE
3Pascal FALSE
808CSNJ FALSE
88_SNIPER FALSE
88_SNIPER TRUE
91lx FALSE
AceSpankin FALSE
achacha FALSE
Acid Hound FALSE
actionmonkey FALSE
actzeng FALSE
AI the answer FALSE
aj80 FALSE
alex1859 FALSE
AlurOne FALSE
AMB03 FALSE
ampaq FALSE
antespo FALSE
aparrot FALSE
Arnhazzi FALSE
Arnhazzi TRUE
Axel Foley FM FALSE
B4LL FALSE
Backus77 FALSE
Backus77 TRUE
badnewsbeatsltd FALSE
Bagataway FALSE
ballerdeuce FALSE
bandito6886 FALSE
barrbear FALSE
BAUNA FALSE
beantown33 FALSE
Beebo23 FALSE
Belisle FALSE
BigFatRich FALSE
BigParms21 FALSE
Biker_75 FALSE
Biskitteater FALSE
bivy FALSE
BKaras FALSE
BLBT434 FALSE
bllufferr FALSE
b-low_33 FALSE
blurry FALSE
Bobz2433 FALSE
boiler1989 FALSE
boomerhue FALSE
bryanfury FALSE
Bubu12 FALSE
Busty St Clair FALSE
cajuncobra3733 FALSE
cashsimmons FALSE
caution9 FALSE
charlieiskickin FALSE
CHELATO FALSE
cheryl F FALSE
chickenhawk9 FALSE
Chief13579 FALSE
ChugSomeBrew FALSE
cindy123 FALSE
CN_Dragon FALSE
CookNbyTheBook FALSE
CptMisery FALSE
CrazyBaz85 FALSE
crazykid13 FALSE
CraZyy12cents FALSE
CTodner FALSE
CYBER_TILT76 FALSE
Cyborg00 FALSE
DaBroWitDaFro FALSE
Daizyhot4Phuong FALSE
DAMJR702 FALSE
dannyc1982 FALSE
datdude823 FALSE
DDeVon FALSE
Delvoy FALSE
Dexter1217 FALSE
DiegoM5 FALSE
dieich FALSE
dimartino420 FALSE
dineromaker FALSE
dj_deakon FALSE
djbignick FALSE
djtanlaw FALSE
DocYarosh FALSE
dodgybob FALSE
doubleUTF FALSE
Dr Hustler20 FALSE
dwildwest FALSE
EarthTrotter FALSE
Edge21 FALSE
eggjuggler FALSE
eigib FALSE
el_rock3 FALSE
Fenlyn FALSE
Filibuster FALSE
FLINTLOCK1000 FALSE
Flip512 FALSE
fomblards FALSE
Fresh_To_Death8 FALSE
Frogmom09 FALSE
FunkyChunky FALSE
Furmans Kid FALSE
g1shot FALSE
gamblindawgg FALSE
GingerKid89 FALSE
gkbass13 FALSE
glueck FALSE
GnikNus FALSE
goni_bablo FALSE
Goso FALSE
Grey FALSE
grrummpaa FALSE
gskp FALSE
H2OGHOST FALSE
harvick333 FALSE
hemipwr711 FALSE
herlitzp FALSE
heyduke24 FALSE
HighFives FALSE
hothuntress FALSE
HSRMate1104 FALSE
Hustlenuss FALSE
ICESWH FALSE
idoc FALSE
igno ramus FALSE
IM-CRU FALSE
INDY_29 FALSE
irishmwins FALSE
jark41 FALSE
JAYVYAR FALSE
jbfresh1 FALSE
jbrennen FALSE
jcrew30 FALSE
Jens_of_SE FALSE
jhubs FALSE
JimBlow FALSE
jkwz FALSE
Joe Note FALSE
JohnBZ FALSE
johndane FALSE
Joriz FALSE
jp242 FALSE
Jsilva23 FALSE
jtd24 FALSE
juicyjc FALSE
jusmoney FALSE
JVPearson FALSE
JVPearson TRUE
kaiser206 FALSE
Kappa-KoReal FALSE
Kegs357 FALSE
keith1995 FALSE
Keoni67 FALSE
keylow63 FALSE
Kisso FALSE
KSC2-303 FALSE
lee 164 FALSE
legionverde FALSE
leguito FALSE
lhiob FALSE
lucky105 FALSE
lukiluciani FALSE
luvmyjob FALSE
Mammouth79 FALSE
MattyTrane FALSE
maverick215 FALSE
MihaiB FALSE
Mikeisgood FALSE
mikej1104 FALSE
mikespyrs FALSE
miketace FALSE
milkmoney1 FALSE
mindfreak009 FALSE
Miss Scarlet FALSE
missmamba FALSE
mliang FALSE
Moana Lisa 85 FALSE
Moe Scyzlak FALSE
MoMoney2305 FALSE
monkey ucker FALSE
mpcLF FALSE
MR KINGPIN FALSE
Mr Naranja FALSE
MrDraco FALSE
MrRobP FALSE
Mstr Charles FALSE
MucknForon FALSE
muckyohand FALSE
mundo1979 FALSE
mustang04 FALSE
MyMan3 FALSE
nadal222222 FALSE
nakdog f2 FALSE
Nandon FALSE
ne2aces FALSE
NickNitro1 FALSE
Niek1986 FALSE
Nijinski FALSE
NL_Game_Theory FALSE
no luck29 FALSE
Norman79 FALSE
NW Star FALSE
Ollie140 FALSE
onearmeddan FALSE
PaChef FALSE
Padawan85 FALSE
Pannolenci FALSE
papparuss FALSE
patrickbecker FALSE
Paychent FALSE
Peteus FALSE
phi1430 FALSE
playmoneychark FALSE
plens FALSE
Pokerpro I FALSE
Pokersebo FALSE
Pony Princess FALSE
proshadetint FALSE
PSH00TER FALSE
Racktors FALSE
RaffaNadal FALSE
rau582 FALSE
RED RAISER FALSE
RedRoxx FALSE
Redtop42 FALSE
Rescue332 FALSE
Ringing7pin FALSE
Rockemsockem1 FALSE
Ronald Rage-n FALSE
roofLe FALSE
Royal_Clown FALSE
RoyalWRX FALSE
SAJChurchey FALSE
sam1967 FALSE
Sanjee FALSE
SBriand FALSE
scoopspecialist FALSE
SEELAND FALSE
seldnars FALSE
shakabuku FALSE
ShieldWolf FALSE
SKEnte FALSE
SleepNStreet FALSE
smc93 FALSE
smoothplaytdt FALSE
Snowghost316 FALSE
Sonya Blade FALSE
Soquid Rock FALSE
sowp FALSE
speedfreakzK5 FALSE
Speeters FALSE
SQQTED FALSE
SQQTED TRUE
statixz FALSE
steindog FALSE
SteveO_Case FALSE
StokeMoney FALSE
StrikeR300 FALSE
stungar FALSE
svnr2000 FALSE
--swiftman-- FALSE
T Daddy FALSE
tam30 FALSE
Tarik84 FALSE
TboneJones FALSE
td8507 FALSE
T-Dubs82 FALSE
Tekillya T FALSE
Tekillya T TRUE
Tetasi FALSE
texmex678 FALSE
The Bear Claw FALSE
TheMittenIsBack FALSE
tia3040 FALSE
Tommyhound FALSE
Topherluna FALSE
toudecaps FALSE
trevor16 FALSE
TripDoggs FALSE
tryyy FALSE
Tsc02 FALSE
tw1n420 FALSE
twitty79 FALSE
twohunglow FALSE
UFPokerAce FALSE
ugottatri FALSE
unplayednamer FALSE
VBPro7 FALSE
verbal101 FALSE
Von Duke FALSE
Vortex2099 FALSE
vr46 FALSE
vvhunter1 FALSE
Warrior622 FALSE
Wheeler02 FALSE
willy420 FALSE
Wilmac Warrior FALSE
Wong808 FALSE
wormmsu FALSE
wuuuu FALSE
x701 FALSE
yeffy FALSE
Zander66 FALSE
zimmyfan1 FALSE
ZonaPoker FALSE
computing expected entries based on duplicates Quote
09-05-2007 , 05:52 PM
It would make more sense to indicate how many duplicate winners there were on each day.

Let's assume, for a moment, that the chance to win is fixed at p, and that everyone who wins plays again.

Then the chance of winning exactly twice in four days is going to be:
p^2(1-p)^2*6=6k

And the chance of winning exactly once in four days is:
p*(1-p)^3*4=296k

So you can solve:
p^2(1-p)^2*6 / (p*(1-p)^3*4) =6/296
p=1/75
so roughly 75*77=5775 people play per day.
computing expected entries based on duplicates Quote

      
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