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Exact Odds of flopping a Royal. Exact Odds of flopping a Royal.

04-23-2015 , 08:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Why are you asking for math geeks? Do you mean those top 1% who know well the math that is required to understand exactly how I Pods work? Why them? They are busy working on things that stupid people want but have no hope of understanding. The question you asked can be answered by 13 year olds with 95 IQs who have spent a few days studying elementary probability.
Wow, who knew running your own site gave you the sway to be able to be a giant f**king c**t to someone asking a simple question.
Exact Odds of flopping a Royal. Quote
04-23-2015 , 09:22 AM
Guy comes to the probability subforum of a poker site, asks a question about poker probailities, gets mercilessly flamed. A+ trolling.
Exact Odds of flopping a Royal. Quote
04-23-2015 , 10:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cranberry Tea
Guy comes to the probability subforum of a poker site, asks a question about poker probailities, gets mercilessly flamed. A+ trolling.
Yeah it was 4 years ago though. Nice bump.
Exact Odds of flopping a Royal. Quote
06-08-2016 , 05:03 PM
For those less practiced with math, here's a bit of a logical explanation of calculating the odds. The goal is to calculate the odds of receiving each card in the series. Do this by dividing the available cards by the possible choices at each stage, then multiplying each of those answers together. Then place that number in terms of "1 in x chance" and you have your answer.

For the the first, calculate the odds of receiving any card valid for the RF - 20 possible cards (4 10s, Js, Qs, Ks, or As) out of a possible 52 in the deck. So, 52/20, or 2.6.

For the second, there are significantly fewer choices. Since 1 card has already been chosen, and a RF must contain a single suit, there are now only 4 cards left that contribute to the desired hand, and 51 cards left in the deck - 51/4 or 12.75.

Third card - 3 cards valid, 50 available. 50/3 or 16.67.

Fourth card - 2 cards valid, 49 available. 49/2 or 24.5.

Fifth card - 1 card valid, 48 available. 48/1 or 48.

Now, multiply all those together:
2.6*12.75*16.67*24.5*48=649,870 (rounded to nearest whole number).

So, odds of flopping a Royal Flush is a 1 in 649,870 chance.
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06-08-2016 , 06:57 PM
Welcome to the Probability Forum, I guess.

Why was this thread from 2008 bumped? The answer to OP was given in the second reply mere hours after the question was posed, and this was more than eight years ago!

And of all the threads in the world, why did it have to be a thread which, to some, put the Probability Forum in a bad light?
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06-08-2016 , 11:57 PM
There may be new people on the site that may not know these odds.(not me, but let's say a friend of mine). This thread could be very helpful to me, umm,
I mean my friend.
Spoiler:
5k limit
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06-11-2016 , 12:54 PM
perhaps one of our fellow geeks wanted it known that we are proud of being geeks.

Also the fact that someone has a higher level of mathematical thinking doesn't make them smarter - I'm thinking of a post here about a musician thinking on levels Sklansky couldn't.
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