So Hero puts villain on KKxx, I'm trying to work out Hero's pot odds and his equity on the turn and if the shove is +EV (with villain calling)

Heros equity of 36.5% on the turn, but is getting ~41 if i have the maths right

PokerStars - $4 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $424.00
Hero (BB): $384.00
UTG: $1,089.90
MP: $973.49
CO: $394.00
BTN: $384.00

SB posts SB $2.00, Hero posts BB $4.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $6.00) Hero has 5 9 T J

fold, MP raises to $14.00, fold, BTN calls $14.00, fold, Hero calls $10.00

Flop: ($44.00, 3 players) 2 K Q
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $44.00, Hero calls $44.00, fold

Turn: ($132.00, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets $102.00,

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

100,040 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 2KQ7

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
5h9hTsJd	36.50%	36,376	270
KK**	63.50%	63,394	270

Villain stack $384 and up to the turn villain has invested $160 leaving $224 behind.

The pot total is $234 after villain bets the turn

Hero shoves all-in on the turn for $326, villain calls $224

So when Hero shoves turn and villain calls, Hero wins $458 profit if Hero hits his outs

That works out to 1.4 to 1 odds

So 1.4 to fraction = 2.4

100 divided by 2.4 = ~41

So Hero is getting ~41% equity to shove if villain calls, but only needs 36.5% equity vs villains top set of kings -- so the shove is +EV.

Is this maths correct?

No, the math is not correct. I think you need to account for the percentage of the time you lose and the dollar amount lost.

the money in pot ?

EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L)

Try this formula. %W= percentage of time you win the pot, $W=Money amount when you win, %L= percentage of time you lose the pot, $L= Money amount when you lose

any chance you explain that in layman's? how do i calculate all that not sure what you mean, I left school at 14.

EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L)
EV= (36.5% * $458) - (63.5% * $326)
EV= 167.17-207.01
EV= -33.84

By my math, going all in will net you a loss of $33.84 making the play -EV.

hmm, if we only need 36.5% equity to break even, but are getting 1.4 to 1

i don't understand how its -EV? where am i getting the maths wrong?

Once Hero shoves and gets called by villain the total FINALE pot is $784 divided by $326 = 41.5%`which is 1.4 to 1

So Hero is getting 1.4 to 1 pot odds which equates to 41.5% but Hero only needs 36.5%.

obv I might be wrong and likely, but just adding how I'm working out the maths and where am i getting it wrong.

I think you are misunderstanding pot odds. Pot odds are used when you are facing a bet and considering a call. In your example, on the turn you are facing a $102 bet into a pot of $132. (102+132)/102= 2.29. You are getting 2.29 to 1 which means you need about 30% equity to break even. Because you have 36% equity, calling is clearly +EV.

In my earlier posts I gave you the wrong formula to figure out the EV when your opponent calls your bet . You should probably disregard my above posts. Sorry.

EV= (Pot * equity) - Risk
EV= (784 * 36.5%) - 326
EV= 286.16 - 326
EV= -37.84

The calculation still results in a -EV play if you go all in.

Ok thanks i get your whole post where you explained it in writing but this below quoted i don't

I don't understand what * stands for and all the stuff in brackets

yeah its likely basic maths i know.

If you can put it more into words i would understand it that way.

And yes i understand what you mean by me misunderstanding pot odds because Hero is not calling, but i probably should not be using the term pot odds and a different term instead -- Say there are two options only for this example i just worked out that if Hero shoves he wins the pot uncontested obviously, and if he gets called then the money in pot and money behind villain combined when he calls works out to odds of 1.4 to 1.

If you know villain is calling your shove - you just add up how much you win total which was $458 to make this play

So say you either fold and lose the money in the pot that you have invested or shove and get called and win $458 total profit for taking the shove option instead of the fold option.

The shove was $326 to win $458 total, which equals 1.4 to 1 odds.

Then i just done 100 divided by 1.4 to 1 (fraction 2.4) which = 41.6%

So then i am assuming 41.6% is equity Hero is getting but only needs 36.5 to break even

that how i am doing the maths, but I'm probably doing it wrong

Was doing the equity maths the wrong way around ok thanks

EV= (Pot * equity) - Risk
EV= (784 * 36.5%) - 326
EV= 286.16 - 326
EV= -37.84

* means "multiplied by"
Pot= total size of the pot
Equity= the percent chance you have to win the pot
Risk= the number amount you bet

EV= The 784 multiplied by .365 minus 326

ah ok thanks for explaining much appreciated.

There has to be more equity in calling than in re-shoving. Which is why pot odds are generally used for calling purposes. Just call the turn. I assume you think the guy might fold if a straight or flush card hits river, but you lose more equity by shoving, as compared to just calling. Why would you ever want to put more money in than you have to, when you know are behind, but yet you stated that you know that you are getting called.

Not to mention I still think you get paid off if you hit your wrap. As for the flush, maybe not, but oh well. I guess you have eliminated the possibility of him having a higher flush draw too.