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Equity from flop to turn and turn to river Equity from flop to turn and turn to river

12-29-2016 , 04:07 PM
If for example we take the hand AdKd vs Askc on Jd-5c-2d flop, AdKd has about 46.57% equity (and 0.91% tie), while on a brick turn like 6s, it has about 27.3% equity.

I dont really understand why the likelyhood of hitting the hand seems higher from turn to river than flop to turn.

is it because of the possible redraw to a J if you hit the turn, or because you divide by 44 instead of 45 the number outs.

Also If theoretically you knew 100% opponent has AdKd, would EV be better getting the hand all in on the flop or calling X bet and then getting all in by turn. I guess it would depend on stack sizes.
Equity from flop to turn and turn to river Quote
12-29-2016 , 04:37 PM
I don't know where you are getting your equity figures but they do not seem correct. Equity is typically expressed as Winning Pct + [(Chop Pct)/N] where N is the number of players who chop the pot.

And, yes, a player's equity can increase or decrease as the board cards come out. So in a typical hand a player has equity pre-flop, on the flop, and on the turn (of course, after the river is dealt the concept of equity loses meaning).

Equity can change due the card(s) helping or hurting, and, as you say, due to the fact that the ratio of a player's "outs" to the number of cards remaining in the deck will change too.

I guess I'd recommend recalculating the correct equities and reposting this hand (or a different hand) if you still have questions.
Equity from flop to turn and turn to river Quote
12-29-2016 , 09:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kingkong352
If for example we take the hand AdKd vs Askc on Jd-5c-2d flop, AdKd has about 46.57% equity (and 0.91% tie), while on a brick turn like 6s, it has about 27.3% equity.
You meant to say AsJc for the bolded.

Quote:
I dont really understand why the likelyhood of hitting the hand seems higher from turn to river than flop to turn. is it because of the possible redraw to a J if you hit the turn, or because you divide by 44 instead of 45 the number outs.
The latter, but the difference is only like .006%, not 7% like it might seem. The flop isn't 54% because that would double-count the chance of two diamonds coming out. This is why the 4 in the "rule of 2 and 4" isn't exact, especially with lots of outs. A single-card probability can't just be multiplied by the #cards to come unless there's only 1 out.

Your remark about redrawing doesn't make sense to me in this context.

Quote:
Also If theoretically you knew 100% opponent has AdKd, would EV be better getting the hand all in on the flop or calling X bet and then getting all in by turn. I guess it would depend on stack sizes.
Assuming AdKd will call regardless, then you're better off getting all-in on a blank turn, since this gives you the option of folding (or checking) if a diamond hits the turn.

Last edited by heehaww; 12-29-2016 at 09:18 PM.
Equity from flop to turn and turn to river Quote

      
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