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Originally Posted by Kingkong352
If for example we take the hand AdKd vs Askc on Jd-5c-2d flop, AdKd has about 46.57% equity (and 0.91% tie), while on a brick turn like 6s, it has about 27.3% equity.
You meant to say AsJc for the bolded.
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I dont really understand why the likelyhood of hitting the hand seems higher from turn to river than flop to turn. is it because of the possible redraw to a J if you hit the turn, or because you divide by 44 instead of 45 the number outs.
The latter, but the difference is only like .006%, not 7% like it might seem. The flop isn't 54% because that would double-count the chance of two diamonds coming out. This is why the 4 in the "rule of 2 and 4" isn't exact, especially with lots of outs. A single-card probability can't just be multiplied by the #cards to come unless there's only 1 out.
Your remark about redrawing doesn't make sense to me in this context.
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Also If theoretically you knew 100% opponent has AdKd, would EV be better getting the hand all in on the flop or calling X bet and then getting all in by turn. I guess it would depend on stack sizes.
Assuming AdKd will call regardless, then you're better off getting all-in on a blank turn, since this gives you the option of folding (or checking) if a diamond hits the turn.
Last edited by heehaww; 12-29-2016 at 09:18 PM.