Originally Posted by David Lyons
I think the probability of bubbling has far too much correlation with specific play style to conform with an assumption.
One could argue:
> Poor players bubble infrequently by not getting there.
> Medium players bubble very infrequently, by folding to the money once they get there
> Good players bubble frequently (i.e. more often than they make last money spot) because good play is often to be aggro on the bubble
If you are a 25% ITM player, then I think you fall into Medium / Good category, but the best way to validate the assumption is this
"OP - how do you play on the bubble? Do you fold to get ITM?"
If the answer to this is yes, then I bet that drops the total independant probabilty by at least 2 OOMs.
I completely agree. The assumptions used to do the analysis above are certainly incorrect. And their degree of incorrectness is related to the degree to which such numbers can be interpreted.
For what it is worth, I also agree with DarkMagus argument. Getting ITM 25% of the time probably means there is not an equal probability of falling in each of the OOTM positions as my analysis assumed.