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Curious about the odds Curious about the odds

12-01-2016 , 05:44 PM
Years ago 50 or so left in $30r FTP I lost a standard flip and was left with like 6 bb or so. Got AJo next hand I'm EP and shove, 2 others both get it in with JJ and QQ. Flop was JQx, and I got running aces to take it down, finished 2nd. Just curious if anyone knew how to calculate the odds of me winning after that flop
Curious about the odds Quote
12-01-2016 , 06:47 PM
Sounds like you need to tally how many turn-river combos would give you the pot and compare it to the total number of possible turn-river combos.

Both of those are very easy to determine for any poker player.
Curious about the odds Quote
12-01-2016 , 10:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by whosnext
Sounds like you need to tally how many turn-river combos would give you the pot and compare it to the total number of possible turn-river combos.

Both of those are very easy to determine for any poker player.
Not so very easy for all poker players. It took me about 5 minutes before I realized hero can win with a straight.
Curious about the odds Quote
12-01-2016 , 11:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
Not so very easy for all poker players. It took me about 5 minutes before I realized hero can win with a straight.
Ha ha.
Curious about the odds Quote
12-06-2016 , 01:19 AM
Not sure how to calculate, but plugged in hands on cardplayer odds calculator. You are 2% to win, so 49 to 1 underdog.

I estimate only 1 of 300 live cash players would know how to calculate this.
This may be a low estimate.
Curious about the odds Quote
12-06-2016 , 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donnie05
Years ago 50 or so left in $30r FTP I lost a standard flip and was left with like 6 bb or so. Got AJo next hand I'm EP and shove, 2 others both get it in with JJ and QQ. Flop was JQx, and I got running aces to take it down, finished 2nd. Just curious if anyone knew how to calculate the odds of me winning after that flop
You know location of nine cards, AQQQJJJJx. Thus 43 cards have whereabouts in deck unknown.

You need two aces or a king and a ten to win.
6 ways to get two aces. 16 ways to get a king and a ten. Thus 22 ways to win, out of 43*42/2=903 possible two card combinations.
903-22=881 ways to lose.

Thus odds are 881 to 22 against you, or 881/22=about 40 to 1 against.

Buzz
Curious about the odds Quote
12-07-2016 , 01:32 AM
Why would your calculations be different from plugging in on an odds calculator?
Curious about the odds Quote
12-07-2016 , 07:52 AM
Because if x is an 8, 9 or T you can split the pot with the low straight, I guess.
Curious about the odds Quote
12-07-2016 , 08:12 AM
2.1% if x can't contribute to a straight, which would make sense. Buzz, you have the combos wrong - only 3 ways to catch running aces as we have one already.
Curious about the odds Quote
12-07-2016 , 03:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buzz
You know location of nine cards, AQQQJJJJx. Thus 43 cards have whereabouts in deck unknown.

You need two aces or a king and a ten to win.
6 ways to get two aces. 16 ways to get a king and a ten. Thus 22 ways to win, out of 43*42/2=903 possible two card combinations.
903-22=881 ways to lose.

Thus odds are 881 to 22 against you, or 881/22=about 40 to 1 against.

Buzz
Oops.

Hero has an ace. Thus just 3 ways to get two aces. 16 ways to get a king and a ten. Thus 19 ways to win, out of 43*42/2=903 possible two card combinations.
903-19=884 ways to lose.

Thus odds are 884 to 19 against you, or 884/19=about 46.5 to 1 against.
Curious about the odds Quote

      
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