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We assume we win against half of his range and lose against half of his range.
I assume this is his range that got to the river before you see how he bets? I think that is irrelevant when you say this:
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We assume that if he bets 40% pot, he has the range that we beat 70% of the time and the range that we lose against 30% of the time.
We assume that if he bets 75% pot, we lose 70% of the time and win 30% of the time.
this comes down to basic pot odds. formula for that is 100%*(his bet)/(pot before his bet + 2*his bet). so when he bets only 40%, you need 22.22% equity to call and you have 70% so this is a call. if he bets 75%, you're getting pot odds of 30% which is exactly equal to your equity so in this situation you're indifferent towards both options. so I guess gto would be call 50% of the time, fold 50%.