Quote:
Originally Posted by engineerEXECUTIVE
If you were to flip a coin ten times and it came heads the first 5 times it would be immediately profitable to bet in big increments on tails the following five flips.
WHAT THE HELL DID YOU JUST WRITE?
Every flip is a new flip and has nothing to do with the previous flip. Read it again.
If you flipped a coin 5 times and it all came heads, it's still a 50/50 chance heads or tails will come on the next flip.
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You are clearly mixing up concepts here.
If you BEFOREHAND decide that "hey, I will coinflip ten times in a row" then fine, it's likely that the distribution will be around 50:50 heads/tails.
That DOESN'T MEAN that you can yell "halt!" at the 6th number and say "well, it's heads 6 times in a row, it's 50/50 in a series of 10, it has to come tails 4 times in a row".
EACH flip is a new flip. Just because you have created a list in your head doesn't mean that that means something. So lol, if another person arrives just as you're saying "heads 6 times in a row! must be tails now!!" and he says "wow! I just flipped a coin ten times in a row and all came tails- so this one must be heads!" does his probabilty impose on your probability then?
Do you realize how silly this is? Do you realize on what kind of low level of understanding you need to be to make the assumptions you make?
Last edited by tultfill; 09-25-2012 at 04:47 AM.