it would be very hard to flip a coin ten times and for it to come tails 10 times is what im trying to say.

But you only described betting on five times. The five that came before you began betting have zero relevance. If you had 50 in a row before you began betting it still has zero relevance assuming a fair coin toss. The coin has no memory.

Five tails in a row starting right now has a probability of over 3%.

But that isn't really even the important point. It's that your expectation on such a bet is still zero, as it is for any series of bets on coin flips no matter how you double your bets.

What you are describing is called the Gambler's Fallacy. It's the reason casinos put up that display of past numbers hit on roulette. To encourage betting on a fallacy.

lol

But you fail to comprehend what im trying to say; If you were to flip a coin ten times and it came heads the first 5 times it would be immediately profitable to bet in big increments on tails the following five flips. because probability is no longer individual. The chance of 5tails in a row has over 3% probability, but what about 10 in a row? so next time a new baccarat table opens and banker wins 5 in a row bet player until you win , instantaneous profit.

Surely you know that flipping a coin repeatedly and having it land solely on one side is impossible so probability will just out weigh tails if it came tails 5-10 times in a row never mind this absurd 50times in a row you speak of so lightly.

Nope, I understand clearly, and your statement is absolutely 100% false. Again, this is called the Gambler's Fallacy.


Edit - I'm starting to suspect that you are just pulling my leg and don't actually believe what you are posting.

Yeah, there is almost no way engineerEXECUTIVE is either an engineer or an executive. That being said, I would stay away from any bridges he/she helped build or bet against any company for which he/she is an executive. This is a well-known and basic logically flaw. The coin doesn't have a memory. The previous 5 flips have nothing to do with the next five. If you see black come up 5 times on a roulette wheel the probability that the next roll is red/black is the same as it always is.

I'm perfectly willing to believe executive.

lol, engineer bias

I think you're probably right! Tell you what, let's try this. We will meet somewhere, any place of your choosing. We'll flip coins in sets of 5 until we get 5 heads or 5 tails in a row.

After that we'll place a wager on the 6th flip. If it's been 5 heads in a row, you'll bet on tails for the next flip. You'll put up, say, $100 and I'll put up some amount less than that, say, $90. Since you claim that tails is more likely to come up on the next flip, you should be able to win handsomely.

I am willing to negotiate terms. I am willing to wager large sums of money on this.

Actually, if there were no biasing external influences, if 5 heads in a row occurred and you had to bet on the next toss, it would make more sense to bet on heads again. If the coin were truly fair, it would make no difference which side you bet on. But, if the coin might have a bias, it clearly would be in favor of heads. So heads makes more sense than tails.

Barring any other information, perhaps. But in my suggestion above you'd probably go through multiple series of flips before you got 5 in a row and you would quite likely by that time develop a good idea of how the coin is (or isn't biased). Certainly well enough to set the line.

So, are we going to have a bet, engineer executive? You should be able to clean my clock if you're right.

Okay now lets say the coin has a 75% chance to land on heads.
The chance that you flip a coin ten times and land heads 10 times consecutively(with a biased 75% chance) is precisely 6%, and that's with a 75% chance to land on heads. So theoretically if we dropped it down to 50% the chance of you landing heads 10 in a row drops by a staggering rate. So if we flipped a coin and waited for it to come heads 5 times in a row and then I bet tails with increments the following five flips I should come out ahead and that is by calculation and probability.

This guy ought to take a bomb on the plane with him since the odds against there being 2 bombs are astronomical.

Be careful with betting H's after a TTTTT streak. The coin might be in a counterbalancing HHHHHHHHHH streak mode. So my advice would be to fabricate a brand new coin.

I know I should not feed a T, but I had this from last year.
A quick change of values and copy/paste

Let us just think this through with some elementary math.

Given that we just saw HHHHH
That probability is = 1
It is a certain. It already happened.

Anything that has already happened
has a probability OF happening of exactly 1.
So there is a 1/32 chance of getting 10 Heads in row, given that we started out with 5 in a row.
For 10 in a row, from the very first flip,
we only have a 1/1024 chance.

Now to the math.
I used the unit betting sequence of 3, 9, 27, 81, 243 (I love 3s)
One really can use any betting sequence, just play with the numbers if you want.
363 total units LOST if heads hits 5 in a row.
That event only happens 1/32 of the time or 0.03125
The expected value of our loss, over playing this coin flip experiment many times,
-363*0.03125 = -11.34375

Now we need the expected win so the world can see the expected value of this betting system.Add up the return column...
11.34375 is our expected win from this system.

-11.34375 + 11.34375 = 0 the expected value of playing this game.
Who knew? Raise their hand high so I can count you

This does not mean that at any time one can not be ahead.
It may take a long time and more bets to get ahead after one has fallen behind.
There is still variance.
But that can wait for another year.

As some have said earlier, the expectation does not change by the way the bets are made.

Sally

Actually If I bet in this pattern
6th flip - 100$ tails lose
7th flip - 500$ tails lose
8th flip - 1,500$ tails lose
9th flip - 5,000$ tails lose
10th flip - 25,000$ tails win.

In this very specific game it is a win
Because the chance of you betting heads on a coin flip ten times consecutively,

P.S. forgot to mention that the moment I win I'm calling it quits because that is how the theory / betting pattern works.

No, your theory doesn't work like that. You have to keep playing every time a streak occurs. You cannot pass up +EV situations.

It's my theory you can't tell me how it works. lol

No, we are telling you how it doesn't work. Pay attention.

OK, great, let's do this! How much money do you have? I mean clearly you stand to make a lot of money of me and all the other suckers here.

I am totally 100% serious. I will fly to meet you anywhere in the continental US. Could go further if I have to.

So, you bet one time and never bet again. Quit while ahead.
That may work for you but not all that follow you.

You still think about the 10 heads in a row, but you will lose your $32,100 with only 5 heads in a row once you start to bet.

This is a very dangerous bet for just a one time deal.

One player risks $32,100 and still has a 1/32 chance of NOT winning
6th flip - 100$ tails lose
7th flip - 500$ tails lose
8th flip - 1,500$ tails lose
9th flip - 5,000$ tails lose
10th flip - 25,000$ tails lose.
In this very specific game it is a LOSS
Done. A Losing Result.

1 million players making this bet,
after seeing 5 heads in a row,
32,500, on average, WILL bust that $32,100 bankroll needed to make those 5 bets in a row.. never ever winning anything.

Not a sure thing by any means.

Most of those that lost end up on a TV show and rip apart the guy that put forth such an idea that they followed.

Instead of using your e-peen keyboard warrior tactics why not try producing statistics and numbers first as a general thumb of respect in this topic of discussion.



Please produce statistics and numbers (as per individual would win/lose if betting until a single arbitrary winning bet has been defined depending on sizing of bets);
In example:
% of times won vs amount risked on 6th consecutive heads
in reflection to how much profit is made if the sequence of flips were to end on the sixth flip being a win
( $100 as stated above ). vs (-$100)
% of times won vs amount risked on 7th consecutive heads
in reflection to how much profit is made if the sequence of flips were to end on the seventh flip being a win
( -$100 +$500 ) vs (-$600)

ETC.





P.S.Your keyboard warrior tactics do not phase me , and that goes for the both of you; numbers/statistics or gee Tee Eff (I think you get it).
Also in case of failure to produce statistical outcomes (highly probable); before getting (butt hurt)mad one should consider the reasoning behind
the current state of this discussion . Obviously because I initiated , and we escalated the topic to the current state but may I ask
for what reason? Edit; Level x (?).

this thread is lul

op, is this a psychological trick so your boyfriend can win a very important bet (that you want to lose anyway)?