Actually while we're at it, a breakdown of acceptable chances of given outcomes would be nice. Like would you be ok with, say:
10% ruin
50% between ruin and breakeven
30% between breakeven and 10x
10% 10x+
or what? You basically haven't said what constitutes an acceptable outcome except that you want it to be easy, and make 10x your money in a short period of time.

Forget staking, imo. I haven't done much of it but I think anyone who plans to make more than 100% return on investment in a year of staking is probably dreaming.

Call the back-to-the-future guy for a ride and go buy MSFT in 1987. Then come back to the present and sell. Easy game.

buy 10k worth of lottery tickets

stake 10k worth of buy ins in the pokerstars sunday storm

Sadly this is pretty much the best reply so far :/

None one has said anything about flipping either.
Is this really a poker forum? Feels more like a troll forum.


My risk of ruin tolerance is a dynamic number.
100% until I've gotten 400% roi then it changes to 25% risk of ruin tolerance.
When a roi of 600% is reached then risk of ruin is 33%
My goal is at least 1000% roi.
Risk of ruin tolerance might be different.. it depends on what I will "gamble" on but it's a good guide line at least.

This is the post that you need to read, OP.

The best concievable probability of a short-term tenfold gain is about 10%.

I would say that if you want to save time just bang the lot on a single row single spin at a european roulette table. You win, you get 120k. You lose, you lose 10k.

The "cost" of this method is is about 270 dollars, apart from that you are getting a fair whack at your objective.

Well the example I made in OP is better.
If you just win 2 consecutive hands.. I don't know what the percentage is (anyone?) but I think it's around 20%-25%. Then you got 4x your starting capital. That means I can breakeven by putting aside the 10k I started with and starting over with 30k instead of just 10k which also means I don't need to make 4 bets anymore, but "just" 2 instead. and after the first bet this time I can put aside another 10k so if I lose the 2nd I've at least doubled my money from this attempt.. And can give it a try again.

It's much better to make a few "high" probability bets instead of just one low probability bet since then you can make sure you breakeven or even make some profits even if you don't reach the 1000% roi goal.

So The toughest part is making the 2 consecutive blackjack hands or flips before you can make yourself breakeven no matter what happens.

You're just looking for a market with the smallest overround (or house edge, or whatever term you prefer). It's almost certainly not going to a casino game, or a bet at a bookies. Maybe geared (leveraged) derivatives / forex trading? You just need to not gear to such a ridiculous extent that you get closed out after a single negative tick, to at least make it interesting. Pick some volatile market/currency, and gamboool.

Yep, Forex is something I'm looking at as well but this is not a forex forum.
I want to look over all my options in world of poker and betting too and make informed decision later what I think is best for me.

It's 22% to win two consecutive hands, assuming that you just let pushes ride.

So your strategy is like this;

First... the early-losers:
L - you end up with 0 (53%)
WL - you end up with 0 (25%)
WWLL - you end up with 0 (6%)

Then... the winners:
WWWW - you end up with 130k (5%)
WWWLWWWW - you end up with 120k (0.003%)
WWLWWWW - you end up with 120k (0.007%)

And I think you lose the rest:
WWLWWWL
WWLWWL
WWLWL

I think that all or most of the cases.

Hold on... are you keeping the left over 10k or are you trying again? If the goal is get to 100k or zero then my analysis above is about right... you can't talk about "keeping 10k" and "trying again" at the same time, it is one or the other. Your system doesn't let you have "some profits" the way you describe it, it seems to be all or nothing.

What you must understand is that every time you stick 10k on blackjack it is costing you 50 to 100 in EV. So any system that requires many bets on BJ or larger bets is costing you 50-100 ... per 10k ... PER BET. That's why I suggested a quick one shot roulette spin at a "cost" of 270 would be a better method.

An interesting question though... don't take this as criticism, as it does seem instinctively better to have piles of 10k in front of you throughout the process of executing the system. But if you are saying that you "stop" at 40k or 50k then you have no chance of getting the 100k you are after.

Find a really good twin-tri carryover pool. You could do 100 wheels or part-wheels on the first race up to $100, looking for 100 exchanges for the win. There are often situations where this will have good value.

This is how I've planned it..

FIRST(the hardest part):
L - you end up with 0 (53%)
WL - you end up with 0 (25%)
WW - you end up with 40k (25%)

CONTINUATION AFTER 2 CONSECUTIVE WINS(second hardest):
(You have 40k after 2 consecutive wins but you only play with 30k to make sure you breakeven.)

W - you end up with 70k
(You bet 30k and had 10k in pocket to breakeven with, Giving you a total of 70k with a win, Now put aside another 10k and keep playing with 50k and 20k in pocket)

L - you end up with 10k
(Try again from scratch )

NOW COMES THE "EASIEST" PART:
(You've got 20k in pocket and 50k to play with meaning you only need to win one more hand to reach 120k)
W - you end up with 120k
L - you end up with 20k
(Take 10k from the 20k and try from start again )

First part: 2 consecutive bets
2nd part: 1 bet
3rd part: 1 bet

I understand that you want to play as little hands as possible in blackjack since the house has the edge.
I am curious about only playing 10k bets continously without increasing the bet size and just hoping for a good run especially in the start but with a pretty uneducated guess I am guessing my strategy is better.. Even though it still needs a lot of luck ofcourse.

This is afterall still gambling but it's pretty stupid not to go for the highest probability gambles when you're gambling.

If you are taking -ev propositions, you'd generally like to take as few of them as possible, if they're all of fixed odds, because the more you take, the more your results converge to the true outcomes, and since it's -ev, that means the more likely you'll lose.

If you have control over the odds being offered, I think you can take more bets, with varied bet sizes, to reduce your chances of losing a bit. There was a recent post about it, such as this one:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...lette-1151716/

OK so you have;
1. A 5% chance of getting to 120k
2. A 77% chance of losing outright
3. A 12% chance of ending up with 10k and restarting
4. A 6% chance of ending up with 20k and restarting from second step

Note 1: The 12% chance of hitting 10k and restarting actually boils down to a 1% further chance of winning and 11% chance of not winning.

Note 2: The 6% chance of restarting at the second step with 20k actually resolves into - at most - 1% chance of success.

So... at most - even with your retrying with 10k and 20k - you have about a 7% chance of success.

The roulette method still wins, hands down, against your blackjack method. The benefit of your method it is arguably a lot more fun in about 20% of cases where you see your money grow and shrink, etc.

But I think the extra 1k-2k you are giving up in EV is not worth the small shot at a rollercoaster ride.

(And by the way, I totally accept that other methods are yet better, but my argument is that the roulette method is mile better and more likely to win than the multi-stage blackjack method.)

Interesting number you've come up with.
Would you mind sharing how you came up with them?

I would have thought I had a lot higher chance that 5%.. Since I've got 5% chance if I just bet 4 times straight.. But that would bring me to 160k which is more than I wanted. My system is about increasing the chance of reaching my goal of 100k.

Edit: Nvm, Don't need to share how you came to those numbers.. I understand the numbers now after thinking about it for a bit hehe.

But yep, Casino is definitly not a choice I'm happy with that's why I made this thread to see if there's any better options.

If you bought Bitcoin now below $6 and it runs up to twice it's all time high you'll make 1000%. If you use 2-1 leverage and get lucky in the beginning you only need to match the old high.

This is better than any casino gamble imo. I have more than $10k worth of coins, no leverage.

Also, takes no grinding.