Originally Posted by statmanhal
I think your general question is about the fold equity on a bet of yours that will be break-even or EV = 0. I'll show you a basic approach.
Showdown EV for a bet by you is
EV = F*P +(1-F)(E*(P+2B)-B)
F = fold equity (probability villain folds)
P = pot before your bet
B = your bet
You can set EV to 0 and solve for F, or you can write the equation in Excel and use its Goal Seek function to find the F that gives an EV of 0.
If you set
EVcall = E*(P+2B)-B, then the break-even F is
F' = EVcall/(EVcall-P),
If F' is negative, you have +EV no matter what. Note that if E = 0, i.e., you are on a total bluff, then F' = B/(P+B), a well known result.
If it is not an all-in situation, then you can add implied odds to the profit part of the EVcall factor for a first cut approach to a much more complex situation
thanks alot.. This is very usfull i just found something simmilar but this is much simpler.