Originally Posted by apkrnewb
I don't know what cherry picked means. She was just sitting to my immediate left through the whole 80 hands of the tourney till i got knocked out (she had AK again! to my AQ) blind vs blind. Why should i not take into consideration how many time she has had AK in that tourney? Not sure why it should not be more unlikely for her to have it since she has had it so many times in the last 80. Did i ask that right?
Cherry picked means that you picked the 80 hand sample after it happened, it is NOT a random sampling of 80 hands. The chance it happened is 100% ("it" being 7 AK). If some other unusual event happened during that 80 hands, you would have noticed that other event instead.
If we pick the NEXT 80 hands played starting now, then the chance it happens again is the calculated probability.
In a nutshell, the probability only applies to a random sample. We can always find some unusual cluster of things if we get to cherry pick the sample.