Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > General Gambling > Probability

Notices

Probability Discussions of probability theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-27-2012, 08:39 AM   #1
newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 16
$4k to $14k in 4 Months

I have a problem and I owe a friend money by mid June (they need it to pay taxes). Currently I have about $4k that I can use to make the $14k.
Does anyone have any ideas where I can grind or work and use my $4k to get there?
Not sure if this is the right place for the post but any advice at all would be very helpful!
Thanks!
greedyfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 09:25 AM   #2
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 12,571
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Come on man, if you had a way to make $10k excess dollars every 4 months you'd be a pretty well off person.
RustyBrooks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 10:06 AM   #3
newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 16
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Yea, Just thought I'd post on this website because it's full of poker players who are notoriously in jams w/ money.
greedyfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 10:19 AM   #4
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,118
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Not in the probability forum, we're all millionaires.
Pyromantha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 11:50 AM   #5
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 12,571
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Needing money doesn't actually make it any easier to get it. My point is that if it were possible to have a relatively assured way to make $10k from $4k in 4 months, well, everyone would already be doing it. And I doubt they'd tell you how.

(Hint: I have $4k and would like $10k more)
RustyBrooks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 02:04 PM   #6
newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 16
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks View Post
Needing money doesn't actually make it any easier to get it. My point is that if it were possible to have a relatively assured way to make $10k from $4k in 4 months, well, everyone would already be doing it. And I doubt they'd tell you how.

(Hint: I have $4k and would like $10k more)
Good point, but I am also sure you have more than $4k. Maybe I should rephrase this (sorry for confusion): How much can a winning player make in 4 months with a $4k bankroll by using proper bankroll management, only using 5% of my bankroll at once.
greedyfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 02:40 PM   #7
adept
 
gammoner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: isc.ro, isotropic.org, or Carbon!
Posts: 818
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

I apologize if I'm assuming too much here, but it sounds as if you don't have much experience, and as such you are likely to earn more in an hour at a minimum wage job than playing poker. Also getting an extra job has zero variance, which will assure that you will have the money and your friend won't break your legs.
gammoner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 02:48 PM   #8
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 12,571
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Quote:
Originally Posted by greedyfish View Post
Good point, but I am also sure you have more than $4k. Maybe I should rephrase this (sorry for confusion): How much can a winning player make in 4 months with a $4k bankroll by using proper bankroll management, only using 5% of my bankroll at once.
And my point is, if you could make $10k in 4 months with a $4k bankroll, you would already be doing it. Nothing anyone can tell you is going to magically make this possible.

But realistically? What's the downside, i.e. what happens if you can't pay? How much risk of ruin are you ok with?

I mean, you have about enough to play $1/$2 NL with 20 buyins. If you can beat it maybe you could make $20/hour playing it live? If you ran right at $20/hour you could do it in 30 hours/week. But if you could beat $1/$2 for $20/hour you'd probably already be doing it.
RustyBrooks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 03:25 PM   #9
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,272
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Quote:
Originally Posted by greedyfish View Post
Good point, but I am also sure you have more than $4k. Maybe I should rephrase this (sorry for confusion): How much can a winning player make in 4 months with a $4k bankroll by using proper bankroll management, only using 5% of my bankroll at once.
The question of how much you can win with X bankroll in Y time, must have two other components. What confidence level in meeting or exceeding the goal, and how much risk of losing it all are you willing to take. And in poker there is another factor, how much edge you have over the average player at the stakes you will be playing.

For example, if you are willing to have 50% risk of ruin, and 50% confidence of achieving the goal, then just put all the money on red in roulette in one bet. Bam, your objectives were met.

It gets harder when you want the risk to be lower and the confidence to be higher. To triple a poker bankroll in 4 months requires a willingness to take a LOT of risk, and even then your confidence won't be high, no matter how good you are.
NewOldGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2012, 03:30 PM   #10
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 12,571
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

He'd have to make more than one bet in roullete since he wants to profit $10k from $4k
RustyBrooks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2012, 10:23 AM   #11
newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 16
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Thanks a lot for the input guys. I am a pretty experienced player _ used to play on fulltilt under thegreedyfish. Always fancied tournaments but they're too risky for this sort of thing too.
conclusion; job>grinding
I'll take a couple shots in some tournies here and there.
greedyfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2012, 10:27 AM   #12
old hand
 
3betu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,703
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

If you give your friend the 4k thats 4k less you owe him. Sure he would rather have that than nothing.
3betu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2012, 11:30 AM   #13
centurion
 
David Lyons's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 127
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks View Post
He'd have to make more than one bet in roullete since he wants to profit $10k from $4k
I don't think that's right Rusty. Roulette ain't all 50/50 shots.
David Lyons is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2012, 12:28 PM   #14
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Sherman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Psychology Department
Posts: 6,793
Re: $4k to $14k in 4 Months

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Lyons View Post
I don't think that's right Rusty. Roulette ain't all 50/50 shots.
Yeah, but if you look at the post he is referring to you will see that the poster was talking about Red/Black bets.
Sherman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2012, 10:13 AM   #15
centurion
 
David Lyons's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherman View Post
Yeah, but if you look at the post he is referring to you will see that the poster was talking about Red/Black bets.
I don't know what you mean... I see no reference to red/black in this thread.
David Lyons is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:16 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive