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4 bet bluffing against the blinds math 4 bet bluffing against the blinds math

11-15-2014 , 08:52 AM
Recently had a play around with my database, had about 80k hands. I noticed if I filtered to btn raise = true, face preflop 3bet = true, I was being 3bet around 19% of the time from the blinds. Roughly 11% from SB and 8% from the BB.

Here is my thoughts. Lets say if I 4bet 3x their 3bet (usually 27bb) and they continue only with QQ+/AK, then they will fold 78% from SB and 71% from BB (QQ+/AK = 2.6% of hands).

Which means roughly when I 4bet the SB 3bet 4 times out of 5 I win 13bb = 52bb.

1 time in 5 he shoves I fold losing 27bb. This shows a profit of 25bb's over 5 hands or roughly 5bb/hand every time I 4bet bluff the SB right? It will be slightly less for the BB since they 3bet tighter but still show a profit. So is 4betting all of my BTN open range profitable assuming my opponents don't adjust?

Of course this changes if opponents adjust (playing zoom micro this should not be a problem) and also if my thoughts that they only continue with QQ+/AK are wrong.

thanks.
4 bet bluffing against the blinds math Quote
11-27-2014 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troy_AF

Here is my thoughts. Lets say if I 4bet 3x their 3bet (usually 27bb) and they continue only with QQ+/AK, then they will fold 78% from SB and 71% from BB (QQ+/AK = 2.6% of hands).
Trying to understand where you have these numbers from(?).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Troy_AF

Which means roughly when I 4bet the SB 3bet 4 times out of 5 I win 13bb = 52bb.
13 bb? as i can see you have at this point 3bb and he has 9 -> 12 total?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Troy_AF
1 time in 5 he shoves I fold losing 27bb. This shows a profit of 25bb's over 5 hands or roughly 5bb/hand every time I 4bet bluff the SB right? It will be slightly less for the BB since they 3bet tighter but still show a profit. So is 4betting all of my BTN open range profitable assuming my opponents don't adjust?
Judging from your own numbers(and I'm still confused by them), then yes looks like under these specific circumstances and assuming no adjustment it's +EV
4 bet bluffing against the blinds math Quote
11-28-2014 , 11:30 AM
People will continue with more than QQ+,AK. And generally a 3x four bet is too big.
4 bet bluffing against the blinds math Quote

      
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