3 door game show question - Page 7 - Gambling and Probability

Kittens · 07-08-2012, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SheetWise

It was titled "Game Show Problem". To someone who was not familiar with Monty Hall, it was less than clear that a goat would be revealed every time. And to those who were familiar with Monty Hall, they were making an assumption that was not clearly stated in the question. How the question is asked is critical for a single solution.

I think it's safe to assume a goat is revealed, nobody would try to argue about whether you switch when Monty reveals a car!

Hopefully we also all agree that regardless of details in stating the problem, switching is never -EV. It's either beneficial or neutral.

Therefore, you should switch (regardless of detail) because there's nothing to lose, but there may be something to gain.

Cotton Hill · 07-08-2012, 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kittens

I think it's safe to assume a goat is revealed, nobody would try to argue about whether you switch when Monty reveals a car!

Hopefully we also all agree that regardless of details in stating the problem, switching is never -EV. It's either beneficial or neutral.

Therefore, you should switch (regardless of detail) because there's nothing to lose, but there may be something to gain.

If the host revealing a door is optional and the host is potentially malicious, it could be -EV to switch. That is, he will only show you a goat if he knows you've already picked the car initially, trying to lure you into switching.

randomwalk · 07-16-2012, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cotton Hill

If the host revealing a door is optional and the host is potentially malicious, it could be -EV to switch. That is, he will only show you a goat if he knows you've already picked the car initially, trying to lure you into switching.

I think Kittens means if the host always has to choose a door, but doesn't choose it randomly.