Played in the current HPT event at Soaring Eagle. Vanessa Rousso and Scotty 'Baby' were guests and played in the ME.

VR gets sat at my table and it was actually quite more comfortable with her and a few more former HPT champs than I thought it would be. In about level 6 or 7 we played this hand with VR in BB.

I (60K) decided to limp PF with J9s from UTG+2. We are at 500/1000/25
2 or 3 callers to VR (35K) in BB ... she basically min-raises to 2200
I (very loosely) call as do 2 others.

Flop is J84
VR bets out 2700
I flat, 1 fold ... Button shoves for 8800 total.
VR insta-calls and then kinda acts surprised that I didn't insta-muck, even to the point where she silently mouthed "oh"

So then she starts talking, which was boarder line not allowed depending on the dealer at the table. Asking, "So, you want to join the party?" ... I tell her 'Yes I would like to ... but' ...

Here is my thinking ...
1) This was a smaller raise than normal for her PF, especially from the binds with so many limpers involved.
2) Again a small bet OTF
3) A very un-Pro insta-call
4) The 'Oh'
5) The speech after I was slow to call

To me this was clearly not AA (due to the "Oh") but yet still an overpair to the board. Especially after she started to goad me into calling I was sure I needed to fold even though I could 'afford' the chips at that point.

If there hadn't been a 3rd player in the hand I may have talked more with her and even peeled a card and shoved into her. She had already made 2 big lay downs and told the table she was 'done with them for 2 hours'.

Anyway I folded ... and of course the 9 comes on the Turn. Who knows what the Turn action would've been but it would've been fun to find out. She is at final table today and I am here waiting for the webcast. boo hoo.

Any thoughts .. or am I grasping at a results orientated 'could have been'? GL

I don't know her game but I hope she's not bad enough to use that sizing with JJ+. I see the pf raise as kind of a "pot sweetener" and that combined with her post flop action/chat leads me to believe top pair no kicker is behind here. I think she's probably got AJ or a set.

Just curious why you think it couldn't have been AA here. I'm curious what you're reading into to the 'Oh' that gives you any information. I could see her having any overpair. I think sets are possible, too, although I think she'd be unlikely to snap-call with sets just because most people can't resist doing a little act to try to express weakness to the third player. But anything's possible.

So what'd she have? Did you say?

I don't think she can ever instacall in a spot like that with a hand equal to or worse than yours unless she's some off-the-charts meta-action genius (I really don't know her well enough to make a call on that). I'm not quite clear how you are ruling out AA but I guess in your spot that doesn't really matter too much whether you include that in her overpair range or not.

I think the instacall is your most reliable piece of evidence out of the five that you listed. Good fold imo.

Come to think of it, I really can't think of any hand that someone can be comfortable instacalling with in a spot like that lol. With an overpair isn't she at least stopping to think about your flatting her and now she's facing the prospect of needing to beat two hands? With a set doesn't she stop to think whether a raise or a call is the best way to get max chips?

Is there any shot she didn't notice you weren't in the hand? (e.g. you were both in Seats 1 and 10 or something?)

The easy way to answer that would be to figure out whether you make this post or not if a blank hit the Turn

Thanks for the comments.

1) Not AA ... This comment might be a little suspect on my part, but in the moment I just felt like she knew she was exposed to action that she may not have expected (or wanted). And to me that meant something less than AA ... certainly less than a set. If I insta-call a shove there (like she did) with AA I'm not really worried about someone hitting a card higher than mine on the Turn or River, thus no "Oh" is 'needed'. So that is what pushed me towards no AA, but definitely QQ/KK/AJ.

2) The insta-call was very strange and combined with the "oh" led me to believe she either forgot that there were 2 players behind her or that she was expecting insta-mucks from both of us. Our table was actually fairly passive IMO and for someone (me) to 'stop' the action for a 3-bet was probably a surprise to the whole table.

3) She showed KK and the board finished out 9-A. I would've hit 2 pair. Button showed J2 for top pair when he shoved. When I told her that I caught up she assumed it was with the Ace, not the 9.

4) Being 3-handed (and not a famous Pro) I just told her that I wanted to join the party but it felt a little crowded and that we really shouldn't be talking too much with another player all-in. She had previously stated she thought it was fine to talk if we were HU, which technically we were HU in a potential side pot. But I had not called into the main as of yet so I felt it was better to stop talking. I really wanted to talk more since I knew that if I hit my card (or not) and shoved the Turn she would've gone into a massive tank.

5) We were in seats 3 (her) and 6 so she should've known I was still in the hand as I was both close to her and had limped PF from EP on her BB and was the first to call her action on the Flop.

6) I think situation is post worthy even without her being a Pro and/or what card does/doesn't hit the board but both of those details add to the mix for sure.

I definitely put more into live tells than most players do (or should) but it seems to be a staple of my game. Reading the moment, and maybe a little 'TV-hand disease', has certainly led to some funky calls/moves as a player and has earned me a (bad?) rep among regs. I think it started out as trying to emulate DNegs, but once I actually started to be 'correct' quite often it has remained a portion of the picture for me at the table. GL

This all makes sense to me. Vanessa knows KK is a monster here and is winning so often that she isn't worried about anything except for the fact that her all-in announcement was too quick that she could lose some potential value from you. My guess is she accidentally forgot you were in the hand. Insta-called as she would have if she was heads up with the short stack (like a professional would so as to avoid any sort of a slow roll), then acted funny to try to disguise her strength and really wanted you to call.

I'm not sure what the 9 coming on the turn has to do with anything if you aren't being results oriented.

Unless you are in the gambling spirit, it's a no-brainer muck. You are only getting 6-1 ish with 5 outs going to the turn.

+1

You have 4-to-1 odds on the flop call, which is too little already since you're obviously beat. If you count on implied odds, what about reverse implied odds in case she has a set already?
Your reads are hard to argue with, as we were not at the table. But it seems like you know you are beat there. So you would need better odds to continue.

I am definitely a gambling spirit .. but was trying to play good poker in a 'larger than normal' situation for me. I was just surprised at the 'total' situation as it unfolded.

VR didn't shove all-in, she only called the all-in of the other player.

Being mainly a cash player here, I contemplated the call as I could 'afford' the calling chips (VR only had 30K behind, I would've had 65K behind) and I would've had position on her the rest of the hand with the B now all in. If 'I' want to assume I get her stack if I hit, then it's still a marginal call because I can only consider the 4 9s as my $ cards as another Jack kills my action (but I win the pot!!).

So from strictly a math sense .. easy fold. Throw in a little poker it gets closer but in the end I was just trying to be a good boy and would've been very lucky. GL

Three 9s, you hold one.
The biggest difference between cash and tournies is the fact the chips don't contain a real value in tournaments. The chips you stand to gain are not as valuable as the chips you stand to lose, so keep that in mind when making decisions.