1/2NL, $900 deep, Villain in HJ, Hero MP

Villain is early 30s white guy, limited reads.
Hero is early 30s Asian, has been seen going on big swings - reloaded after bricking a FD, took a couple big pots when strong pairs held up or draws (i.e. OESFD vs nut straight) hit.

Two limps to Hero who is still stacking his last pot. Hero flicks in a $2 chip with 65o. One more limper, Villain limps and we get to a flop.

Flop 234hh, pot ~$14.

Hero bets $10, Villain raises to $35, Hero re-raises to $110 fairly quickly. Villain smiles sheepishly at Hero, having just seen Hero take down a large pot. Hero smiles back and shrugs. Villain calls.

Turn 234K two hearts, pot $234.

Hero deliberates briefly and bets $180. Villain thinks about it for a moment and calls.

River 234KA, hearts brick. Pot $594.

Hero begins stacking chips for a bet. Villain says, "Be careful."

I'll reveal the rest of the river action later, but I'm trying to figure out whether "be careful" meant

"I don't want to call any more bets"

or "I have a medium-strong hand that I want to take to showdown, but only if you make it cheap enough"?

This usually means I have a hand I want to showdown but not call a big bet.

I would say "so you have a good hand but don't want to call a big bet? I'm all in"

I think he has a set most of the time. All-in my friend, all-in. If he had a flush he wouldn't want to try to say something that could change your mind. If his hand was weak he might not have the confidence to say it. I'm guessing he has a mediocre set, but may have already made up his mind to call whatever you bet. That ace of hearts is the perfect bluff card if you were bluffing, he might just look you up light.

Based on your post though. It sounds as if he folded which sucks, but oh well.

I think this is almost always going to be defensiveness, and I think we can agree on that. The question is what to do about that. I will usually use such behavior to make a big bluff, so most of the time if I want a call I'm going to size it a bit lower than I might usually. Especially if I don't really have reads and am not sure how loose/tight the player is yet.

I'd probably bet around half-pot or maybe 3/4. I agree there's a good chance he has a set. But I think it's even more likely he has something like Ax of hearts (maybe even A2/3/4 or whatever non-heart was on flop).

I agree...Make a smaller bet that he can call...bet too much and he folds.

The SPR is 1 on river - doing anything but shoving doesn't make sense from a poker standpoint.

As far as the verbal tell (let's assume an infinite SPR), he is probably removing straights from his range. I don't know how he would feel about a set here but I'd be pretty happy to let you value bet Ah3h if I had one.

To me this feels more like he flopped 2 pair and is trying to get you to check Ah3h. That's assuming 23/24/34 are in his pf range.

I think "be careful" has two meanings:

Surface meaning... be careful not to do something silly or you'll end up losing all your chips

Real meaning ... I have a decent not great hand and I really don't want to be put to the decision.

Action... With the nuts (as here)... not a shove (he'd fold)... something about 1/2 psb

I usually read this to mean they are near the bottom of their bluff catching range.

I size up to full pot whether I have it or am bluffing because you can bet pretty merged for thin value, and this is what we want to do with bluffs.

I'll have to think a little about the difference between, "decent - not great" - and "bottom of bluff catching range". Not really an issue on this hand, I guess

He's saying his hand can't take a big bet. So make a very big bet and make him level himself into calling.

Oh like when someone shows a big hand on the turn thinking it's river and time to showdown. They always end up calling..

think of it from the opposite perspective: if V is strong and it looks like you're going to bomb the river, its not likely that hed try and stop you or goat you into betting less.

I interperate "be careful" as trying to convey strength - "be careful, youll lose all your money because i have the nuts". Rather than "be careful, youll lose all your money because you have a really polarized triple barreling range and i beat all your bluffs"

Side note: be careful with engaging with villain when he looks at you. id generally interpret shrugging as strong. smiling and shrugging arnt things you tend to do when you're 3bet bluffing flops.

The same goes with me as well. I have a good hand but won't call a big bet for certain reasons..

Hesitate then bet half his remaining stack.

No. Immediately overbet with your entire betting range. This is our best chance to get sick value with a marginal hand.

Means "be careful".
Any other questions just ask.. thx!!

Typically a guy looking for a showdown IMO. Usually from an older player, but can come from any reg I would imagine since they would've seen it before.

I think it means they are putting you on a bluff but don't really want to call a bet unless they have to.

I tend to shove/overbet into these comments and get called quite often.

Or a shove as an over bet with the nuts and the donkey calls.

You have the butters so his "be careful" means he does not have the Butters.

Ya I agree with everyone here.

I wouldn't shove because you don't want worse to fold.

Value bet 1/3-1/2 psb so he can call or hopefully raise you.

Wow I really like this actually.

Bet big representing a missed FD

Source: Rounders.

No little bets, which stink of value betting. I agree that you bet big and make him worry he's being bluffed.

shove so he can level himself.

or bet less than half pot for an easy call

think vill will be silent as a tomb with a set + i think we would have seen a RR otf or ott

glgl

I agree, and be happy that the tell will be there next time. Go all-in, he folds, and changes his attitude.