Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,044
I don't have strong feelings about this one. A few comments, though:
I do like the general idea of, when you imply you're going to call, and they do/say something out of the ordinary, then you should be more likely to call. As you say, generally if someone thinks you're going to call and they're strong, they don't want to 'get in the way' of you calling. You should be willing to try this if you are leaning towards folding and are looking for a possible reason to call.
Conversely, and similar, if you imply you're going to fold, and they do/say something out of the ordinary, then you should be more likely to fold. The thought is: if they are bluffing, and think you may fold, they wouldn't want to do/say something that would change your mind. You might be willing to try this if you are leaning towards calling and are just looking for a possible reason to fold.
But both of these are far from certain of course. One of the factors is that just by you talking you increase the chances of them talking and interacting in general, which lessens the meaning of their behavior in general. (The pattern would be more meaningful if they got a nonverbal indication you were calling or folding.) Long story short: it'll be tough to make a whole lot of use out of these maneuvers as there is a lot of variety.
Some of his behavior would make me more likely to call. Mainly: I would think he'd usually not want to get in the way of you calling, and saying "Save your money" and stuff like that makes me want to call him. Of course he will sometimes be goading you and just talking from being relaxed, but I think usually it'll be a last-ditch effort to get a fold. I would think if he was going to verbally goad you, he would have done it earlier than that.
Conflicting with this, though, is his statement of having T8. Most players don't like to lie. Of course it's possible he's lying, but you'll find that people are often truthful, especially when there's a good chance they could be called.
Also, him showing the Ten, on its own, would generally make me think he's strong, as this is technically a 'weak-hand statement': as you say, it gets rid of a lot of strong hands he could have, and boils down his strong hands to just T8 and T9, which you would think a bluffer would not want to do, as that could theoretically make you suspicious. Especially removing the flush from his range, which could theoretically make you suspicious that he might not bet the river with just a straight.
So it's all conflicting a bit (as behaviors often do) but I think there's a little more evidence of strength than weakness. (Mainly because you'd think he wouldn't want to remove so many strong hands from his range if he were bluffing.)
To go way out on a limb, I actually think it's quite likely he has T9 for trips. Saying "I have T8" when he actually has T9 is the kind of semi-true statements players like to make. Close enough to the truth to not seem too underhanded, and it's fun to play with the truth when you deceive. This would fit with him only being willing to do it after it was clear you were quite weak, and it fits with the idea that him showing the T is likely to make you more suspicious, not less.