1/2 cash, 9-handed, casino, no history except for last 90 minutes

V is on a downswing (120), Hero is running table over for last 90 minutes since table change (1000)

Hero raises to $12 OTB w AK, 2 callers including V UTG (had limped)
Flop is J68 ... check, check, Hero bets $18, v calls

Turn is 8 ... check, check
River is J

V very slowly shoves one very tall stack in for $90 .. his chips are all mixed together with no way of knowing the total.

V looks sad, but has been sad pretty much the whole time at the table.

Hero starts to talk about a chop ... "A call to chop $70?"
V immediately starts to sort his chips ...
Hero tells V to stop sorting ... "I can see them"
V continues to sort chips until a $90 total is established.

Hero ponders V actions as really only 1 of 3 things ... pretty much ruling out Jx due to lack of betting on Turn.

1) V has Ax and is chopping
2) V has 8x and didn't get to c/r Turn
3) V has air

What are your thoughts? GL

I dont think i rule out a weak jack . 10J JQ in range probably. Doesnt lead flop into original raiser out of position. Checks turn planning to check raise or call. Nuts on river.

With him out of position a weak Jack is pretty much the number one hand that comes to mind when trying to assess his range.

I didn't really want to discuss the Jx situation too much due to the 'stop sign' tell. But based on limited previous behavior (and giving him 'above average' status) I don't really think he risks the Turn getting by without a bet/shove being short stacked. There are 2 flush draws out there now and he knows I am 'on a roll'. Also being short stacked he probably is calling down the River if a low flush hits anyway, thus would choose to gii when ahead.

Of course this logic may be as likely for 8x as Jx so I understand (and respect) anyone's viewpoint on this.

I guess I could modify my comments about Jx to include not c/r the Flop as a short stack with the flush draw out there.

Perhaps I was too willing to eliminate Jx from his range in order to give myself more 'room' to assess the lack of following my request to stop sorting the chips. GL

On a side note ... a friend of mine had just sat down at the table. I hadn't seen him in a long time and didn't want to look silly in front of him for some reason ... calling into a double paired board. I really didn't want to call here initially.

1) It could be because he was short stacked.
2) It could be because I was on a roll.
3) It could be because I really wanted to snap off this player.
4) It could be that I was emotional about him not listening to the current 'captain' of the table.
5) It could be that I was dead on about the tell ...

So as a flare for my friend .. and perhaps to further tilt this player if correct. I picked up all of my cash (about $500) and tumbled it out onto the table in a gross over-call.

The player flashed 57 and tossed his cards into the muck. GL

If that was true, he wouldn't have check/called the flop..

I can go either way on Flop with Jx. He had seen me firing away at many hands so he really didn't have any reason to think I wasn't going to continue on 'most' Turns. He can't reasonably expect me to call off if he c/r the Flop IMO so he waits for me to continue to bet on the Turn.

Once the board pairs I think it freezes both of us .. and being OOP he cant' do anything about it if I check.

So what I am interested to see in the comments is whether you put Jx or 8x strongly into his range based on how he played the hand and especially considering the sorting of the chips. GL

Sorry, I meant that I wouldn't assume him betting the turn with Jx if he doesn't c/r the flop with 75ss.

His river action sounds kinda confident = strong, but apparently he is able to fake that..

You would expect V to lead turn with something like J10? C/c flop, lead turn seems really bad, no? I think you're ruling out hands erroneously in order to simplify your river thought process. I'm no psychologist but there's definitely been some serious confirmation bias that has leaked into your game, i.e. randomly removing hands from your opponents range and being right in specific instances. The problem is your assumptions are wrong.

I feel like when low limit guys push out random amounts of chips they're more likely to have it. I like the fold unless you have a specific read he's weak.

Edit: I think betting flop is bad in this spot.

1) With the 8 on Turn it is a perfect place for Jx/8x to bet out and protect his hand from flush and straight draws. (which are both in my very wide range that V has seen at showdowns) It allows for a pretty easy sigh River call if we dont gii on Turn. The places I play this would be very common but I can understand if you feel that it's less likely in other parts of the poker world.

2) Although poker has changed some for sure, Johnny Chan made a living by c/c Flops and donking Turns.

3) I was ready to fold. It made no sense to call $90 to win $35 'some of the time' and lose maybe most of the time .. and win it all even less of the time.

4) The specific read he was weak was that he kept counting his chips when I told him to stop .. and no one in a 'tells' section seems to want to discuss that, just how bad I played the hand ITO.

I am the first to agree that I rely on live tells way more than anyone probably should. This was one that I hadn't run across as of yet. Even if I had lost the hand I thought it was a potential topic to at least crack open.

I will never play poker based on the 'true' math as shown in #3 above and I can certainly agree that a true 'math' player folds here without batting an eye. GL

Don't want to turn it into a strategic decision, but in general UTG should at least consider leading the turn on cards that improve his range vs. buttons. Now it's up to you to decide which range benfits from the 8..

Again, to me his river actions look strong.

Thoughts:
Snaperooski fist pump.

That's probably my only thought in game.

Definitely a strong call in that spot assuming you didn't pick up on something in the previous 90 mins. My line of thinking lines up with madlex... I'd assume he'd shove on the turn if he was bluffing.

Thanks for the look see ... In general I have 'little' business making the call on the River when at best I'm chopping for 33% of the calling chips.

It appears that the bet in it's self should have more significance than the sorting (and lack of stopping) of the chips. I certainly didn't have any previous data to work with but it just surely made sense when I made the call. It would've looked a little silly if he had turned over JJ in that spot in front of my friend ... glad he didn't ... GL

If this player was happy for a call, he'd lean back and look meek.

I think he's sorting chips because he's kind of dazed about his impulse to risk everything on a bluff and wants to hug them one last time before they're gone forever.