Looking for some advice on the topic of leaving my job and going fulltime poker. I've been on the fence about it for awhile now and I feel as if im ready to make the polar plunge or I may never do it. I'm hoping the discussion here will help further my reassurance on my decision or help provide some other angles or insight I may not have thought of or should put more weight into.

Just to give a little background info on me, im almost 28 and live in Virginia. I've played poker somewhere around 5 years now. The bulk of my playing time will be live at the new MGM, maryland live, and borgata with the majority at the closest one to me (MGM about 50 miles). I would be mainly playing 1/2 and mixing in some 2/5 shots here and there. I'm still going to play online some but want the main focus to be live. The job I would be leaving is a $16/h night shift job working in a 0 degree warehouse. I have a serious girlfriend I will end up marrying soon and a family to plan for not too far in the future, she is supportive if I decide to make the jump but cautious because of obvious reasons. I will need to earn about $1,200/month to cover my expenses. I think I can also bet sports and play blackjack profitably but want that to be on a very small scale and not factored into my main income.

The independence of being your own boss and having an open work schedule is very attractive to me. I apologize I probably didnt write this very well and maybe left out some information needed but any feed back will definitely be appreciated. Any locals to the area add me on twitter at @jnolanpoker

What is your long term win rate, what is the sample size used to determine that rate and how do those playing hours compare in juiciness to the hours you would be playing if full time?

How does that compare to your job and what benefits, if any, would you be giving up?

How big is your bankroll/life roll, how many months expenses do you have saved up, what do you determine the chance that you go busto is and what is your backup plan if that occurs?

If you haven't got answers to those questions, you need to do some more thinking. Also, the idea of playing 1/2 for a living makes me feel depressed and I like playing poker. I would not consider going pro if I couldn't beat 2/5 for a better rate than 1/2. What is your career plan? Because being a 1/2 grinder for life is a pretty sad ambition.

Have you considered learning a trade or going to school for a specific job or industry to improve your career prospects? In my opinion, poker is best suited for a hobby that doesn't cost any money (or can even make you a little money). I'd have a lot less fun playing if every decision I made had implications for my financial future.

You sound a nice down to earth guy, so please don't take this the wrong way. If you have the required skill set to be a successful professional poker player, it's highly likely that you could use those same skills to get a significantly better job than working at night in a freezing warehouse.

That you think this makes your chance of success very small.

Why do you think you're a good enough player to do this? Saying you played for 5 years isn't enough. What else have you done to prepare for this?

What have you done to try and improve as a player?

You will be lucky if this time next year you're not broke.

You shouldn't be thinking of what you need to make to meet expenses. You should be thinking about what you need to make to replace your current income. As another poster said, you also need to think about what benefits at your current job you would be giving up.

I think you should only quit your job to play poker when you can't afford to go to work anyone

You're very likely to fail but the risk is low. You aren't dropping out of an anesthesiology program. Give it a shot if you feel like you need to know if you could make it.

Don't do it.. if you think you can also beat blackjack and sports betting you are probably wrong about at least 2/3 activities

You should still be able to play in some of the juicier games 1-2x a week but talking about making money in bj and sports betting is a huge red flag that you are probably a delusional degen who doesn't like his current job

Consider also
1. The credit and future job hunting implications of having a big gap in your work history where you are showing little to no tracked income
2. The idea of setting your own schedule and being your own boss is a myth. Especially at the size game you are talking about, you are a slave to the game, and must play when the games are juiciest, which often means weekends and nights
3. I don't know if your job has benefits. If so, and it is full time, you need to make about probably about $45K a year (to make up for lost benefits and higher variance). If you are playing live 1/2 fulltime (let's say 50 hours a week, at 30 hands an hour, 50 weeks a year). To do that, you would have to win around 9 bb an hour, or the equivalent of 30 bb per 100 hands. Even to hit your target of $1,200 a month (this is not a livable income, especially if you are using this to fund your bankroll and life roll), you would have to win 3 bb an hour, or 10 bb per 100 hands. These are difficult for the 1/2, with the high variance play and the rake.

As others have mentioned, the blackjack and sports betting thing. See those billion dollar hotels in Vegas. They didn't get built because people can beat blackjack and the sports book.

Two, if you were single, I'd say do what you want, give it a flyer and maybe you would be good enough and move up in stakes and actually make it work. But you say you are planning for a family. Pick one or the other b/c trying both sounds like heartache to me because more than likely you will not be able to support a family playing 1/2 even if you were very very very good at it.

I would say don't quit your job until you are rolled and comfortable with 2/5. Don't play blackjack or bet on sports.

If you're starting a family and your child is going to depend on your income, absolutely do not quit your job.

If you're not going to have a child yet, then go for it. Playing poker for a living gets **** on a lot around here, but it's great as long as you're the only one depending on the money.

Don't ****ing do it.

Plenty of people beat BJ and or sports. I am not recommending OP dive in and take up all three. I would tell him he prolly needs to just work on poker for now, but to say BJ and sports are unbeatable , you are only using your own sample size of 1.

A couple questions that I think are very important OP. How easy would it be for you to enter back into the work force ~ 16 an hour in a similiar job if pokerz fails u? Would u defend you and your gf into massive debt " if you ran bad "? How well off and willing is your gf to carry both of u financially if things don't go as expected early on?

There is soooo much more pressure when you HAVE to win versus when you WANT to win .

Honestly, playing poker full time for a living is such a difficult thing to do. Especially now in 2017, it's much harder than it was say 10-15 years ago.

That's why I became a professional poker dealer. I was on the Pokercast a few months ago, and talked a little bit about why I got into dealing.

Now, I play part-time for a living. I get to pay a couple bills with the money I make, sometimes I buy some nice things, but ultimately I don't need to rely on my poker winnings.

If you love poker as much as I do, I strongly suggest considering becoming a professional dealer. It allows you to be around the game for a living, you can never lose as there is no risk, and you get to play, given that you have a sufficient roll. And, Vegas casinos allow you to pay while you're on the clock as long as there are no players at your table. As soon as a player gets a seat though, you have to get up regardless of if you're up or down money. But, you get to play while collecting your hourly wage. Pretty sweet!

I'll be dealing the 2017 WSOP this year. I live in New York, and I deal at about 14 different games all throughout New York. Underground & private games are quite lucrative. I make about $1,000 per week on average. Sometimes more, sometimes less. I'll be staying with a friend of mine who is a dealer at the Bellagio. He doesn't make as much as me, but he has more stability. And I might wind up moving out there with him and working at either The Orleans or The Wynn.

If you have any questions or need any help on how to become a dealer, I would be more than happy to help.

Like I said, take it into consideration. I love poker. I love the game. I consider myself so lucky and blessed that I get to be around it. Work is fun for me!

Think about it!

^^^ if you have access to deal private games you are bat **** crazy to move to Vegas.

yeah the cost of living is a thing but if you're known around NY you might get that text tomorrow to deal in a $2K/night game, gl finding that in Vegas

I've had this conversation with my buddy who works at The Bellagio.

The problem with private games is the stability. Sometimes they get cancelled. And you can never, ever miss a game. Because the problem is, you miss one game and now you're at risk of losing the gig.

I've been dealing for a little over 8 years. I can count on one hand how many times I've missed a game. I've shown up to a game the day after getting released from the hospital for a heart infection. You HAVE to make every game.

Now, I'm one of the top dealers in Long Island. That's why I get so much work. I take a lot of pride in my skills as a dealer, and I'm always looking for ways to get better and improve. Like I said, I feel so damn lucky I get to do this job. It's so much fun and the money is great. I have such a free schedule, it's always engaging and fun (especially when I'm dealing PLO or an uncommon variant), and I get to be around all the action!

The benefits I see to moving to Vegas is that there's better job stability and way more opportunities. Also, there are STILL private games in Vegas -- you just have to find them. Honestly, I would most likely start my own private game out there, just as I've done out here in New York.

I also want to do the televised poker games/featured tables. I have experience dealing televised games. So that's a plus.

It's not so much about the money for me. It's long term. More opportunities, I would eventually want to work my way up to Floor Manager/Tournament Director. I have worked in some of the biggest card rooms in New York, and I used to Direct the biggest tournaments in New York City (10 tables, twice a week... very big for NYC).

Also, I feel like I'd be happier in Vegas. Cheaper cost of living too.

Yeah, those games are rare now. And when they do happen, you spend a lot of money as a dealer to get the game off... putting people up, buying up action, sitting in the game until it gets off, etc.

Back in 2005-2008 for sure. Yeah, average pay was $1,000 a night for a dealer at a busy club.

Not like that anymore though.

Also, tournament poker is much more prevalent than the big cash games now.

While I appreciate your comments, I am confused . Are you the dealer or the houseman? I was fortunate enough to deal a private game for a year making 1200-2000$ a game , but the book / credit , food , bev , location etc were all on the houseman who would make 2-3 what I did. I don't believe dealer and houseman are always synonymous.

The best thing about mid to high end private dealing gigs is a hot waitress or 2 that no one wants to look cheap in front of and red chips being the lowest denomination. It's a great parlay .

Not sure why blackjack is getting hammered on. It is common knowledge that blackjack is a beatable game.

Skill-wise, blackjack is a much easier game to beat than poker. A good poker player should have a better win-rate taking on the same amount of risk as a straight counter playing blackjack in good game conditions, but it takes more work to become a skilled poker player than to learn how to count proficiently.

There are more advanced techniques for beating blackjack than straight counting which can be difficult but can yield high edges.

There are ways to exploit almost every game in the casino without cheating. Many of them rely on procedural/mechanical weaknesses which allow exploits. I will not give details on it because if I do it will probably cease to exist, but I am aware of a game which exists in a real casino right now (or at least the last time I was there) that offers a theoretical player edge over 10%. There are people who make a living searching for and exploiting opportunities like these.