This was in a $6/$12 HE game, 9-handed. The UTG player, a middle-aged man who seemed reasonably tight and conservative, raised preflop. Three players ahead of me called. I called with KQ on the button. The big blind called, so we were six-way to the flop.

The flop was Q94, giving me top pair with a decent kicker. The big blind checked. The UTG player also checked, which seemed to suggest that he had missed this flop (perhaps with a hand like AK) or was afraid of it multiway (perhaps with a hand like JJ or TT). Another player checked, but a MP player bet. The next player folded. I called with the intention of raising any safe card on the turn. The big blind folded. The UTG player now raised.

This check-raise suggested that he actually liked the flop a lot. A set seemed unlikely, as there was only one combo of QQ he could have, and I'm not sure he would've raised pre with 99. I figured the bottom of his range was exactly what I had: KQs. But he could also have AQ, KK, AA, or maybe AK. The flop bettor and I both called.

The turn was the 3. When the dealer turned it, the UTG player stared at it and blinked rapidly 6 or 7 times; this reaction seemed genuine and beyond his control. I interpreted it as fear: whatever he had, he did not want to see a third diamond. So I eliminated many hands from his likely range. I didn't think he had a set; I didn't think he had AK; and if he had AA, KK, or even AQ, I didn't think he had a big diamond in his hand.

But despite this reaction, he seemed compelled to make a continuation bet on the turn after having check-raised the flop. The MP player called, and I raised, trying to attack the bettor's apparent weakness and represent a flush. He called, but I sensed it was with some reluctance or chagrin. The MP player folded, so we were now heads-up.

At this point I assumed his most likely holding was AA, KK, or AQ without a diamond, and that he was hoping I had either (a) a smaller pair than his plus a flush draw with which I was semibluffing or (b) two pair that could be counterfeited on the end. I planned to bet pretty much every river that didn't pair the board (unless it was another Queen, which I would also bet).

The river was the 2, for a final board of Q9432. He checked. Normally I would check behind on a four-flush board if I didn't have a flush myself, but I was convinced he did not have a diamond, and I was pretty sure he had a better hand than mine, so I bet the river without hesitating. My line seemed consistent with a big flush, and he folded right away. So I guess my read on him was correct. What I'm wondering is, have others seen this particular tell (rapid, unconscious blinking upon seeing a turn or river card), and does it have a consistent meaning associated with it?

Thank you.

I have caught myself doing this when I hit a card that's good for my hand. I think perhaps that you are so in tune with staying in the moment of not revealing anything that your 'energy' goes to a pretty weak muscle!!

This goes along with an immediate 'wide' eyed look at a card that just slams the board. A player may try to play this off as a false tell but in reality they just couldn't contain there enthusiasm for the card coming out. GL

A few random thoughts:

I do agree staring at the board and blinking in an unusual/notable way makes it more likely someone is not that connected with the board. Mainly because:

Players who connect well usually have an instinct to look away, if only for a second or two, when they hit. This is probably mainly due to the instinct to hide "treasure" from an enemy/competitor. Reminds me of the scene in the movie Blood Diamond when the African guy, who's being forced to mine diamonds, sees a huge diamond on the ground, and he instinctually avoids looking at it so his captors also don't see it. So this staring at the board behavior when someone hasn't connected is mainly just the lack of that instinct.

At the same time, I don't consider it a very reliable tell, especially not in a vacuum. Many players stare at the flop consistently. This is why it's important to get baselines on these kinds of behaviors. When I play I like to try to get a sense of a few basic things about players: one of them is where they like to look in different spots of the hand, as I think eye-direction tells are one of the most important types of tells. If you see him in even one hand where he's betting a strong hand and he's staring at the board, you know this kind of staring-at-board tell probably isn't going to be useful at all. Or maybe you see him when he's got a strong hand and he's avoiding looking at the board, and you get some confirmation. Point being: I wouldn't feel very good basing a big decision on this in a vacuum, although it definitely would encourage me, even in a vacuum. I can imagine doing what you did, even in a vacuum, I mean, just wouldn't love it.

I actually think QQ or 99 fits this guy's line very well. Many players would check raise a set in this way and be unlikely to play a single pair that way. It also fits his willingness to call your turn raise.

I would also be encouraged to bet the river, especially because if he has a set he obviously doesn't have a flush. And no matter what, if he's on the tighter, conservative side as you say, this is a good card no matter what he has, even if he turned a flush (like maybe he got frisky with JTdd, which is imaginable as so many people love that hand).

I was going to say something else but I drank too much and can't remember what it was.

Thanks for your response.

The blinking was very rapid, almost like a fluttering of his eyelids. It started when his focus was on the board as the turn card fell, but it continued as he lifted his gaze upward. Then the fluttering stopped, and he slowly reached back to grab some chips for a turn bet—as if he didn't really want to but felt he had to.

The eyelid fluttering was the most obvious manifestation of his reaction, but his expression and how he moved to get chips also contributed to my gut feeling that he was scared of the turn and didn't really want to bet but didn't want to show weakness either. That's why I removed sets from his range at that point. When I flop a set, I'm not scared to see three cards to a flush on the board. I know I'm still ahead most of the time, and even when I'm not, I have 10 outs to improve.

Also, if he had a set, I think he would have displayed some disappointment or chagrin when the river was a fourth diamond and I still bet. Maybe shaking his head, maybe staring at his hand despondently or showing his cards to his neighbor before mucking them, maybe giving at least some thought to calling me in case I had only two pair or a smaller set (or a bluff). But he did none of these things. He just folded right away.