I agree with Precept bet flop bigger if you're going to c-bet, set up a turn shove. At least 30bbs, 35+ even better. Try to take it down immediately or at the least force it to get it HU.
I don't like this line. Board is dry, best way to get value from weaker hands is bet half pot, especially since I'm IP and board is dry I expect to get looked up more by weaker hands with a "standard 1/2 psb".
If CO had called the turn would be an easy v-bet. When all I was left with was SB the hand plays differently.
Quote:
As for river as played, what's your image?
If loose or aggro and they know you're capable of bluffing I like shove river for value. You should get called with JJ, TT, 9x, 88.
If tight I probably check river behind cause he shouldn't put another chip in with a worse hand if he's actually competent.
Don't really like b/c or b/f, so I avoid putting myself in that spot at the expense of a little missed value.
Thing is he might look at it as last ditch attempt with broadways in which case I might get a call from a small PP.
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Originally Posted by Precept2
I bet 35-45 BBs on the river. Villain might make some kind of call with TT, JJ, A9, 78, or even 98.
On the flop, you bet and he called. You checked behind on the turn giving him the idea that you were c-betting with air. If he's got any pair, especially if he spiked a pair on the river, he'll pay you off. You'd be giving him 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 on the river giving him favorable odds to sigh-call and pay you off.
This was my thinking as well.
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Originally Posted by philthy415
If you put him on a PP, could he have JJ or TT here? You with the TAGish image 3 bets from the btn and he decides to flat not wanting to get shoved on if he 4bets?
Yes that's definitely possible. AA/KK OOP and with a possible 4-way pot? No way (at least not 99% of the time, always leave room for the unthinkable)
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Originally Posted by palindrome
I think I would have bet the turn too. I don't hate your line though. As played, b/f 30bb.
I think you are ahead here most of the time. I can't see KK or AA hesitating pre flop unless he is an actor. Does he normally give off reverse tells? Looks a bit like jacks.
No he's no actor. Looks like he was debating if he had a call or not and he might have been thinking to 4-bet since I 3-bet on the BTN.
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Originally Posted by DrStrange
I'd bet/fold something like 25BB - same bet as the flop bet. (but note the risk factor qualifier.)
Hero's line looks like a big ace that tried a 1/2 pot c-bet and then took the free card in hopes he would pair up. I expect Hero to be called by almost any one pair hand - both villains sound like they will call down light.
The risk to making a small value bet is that these villains might be the type to make a play on Hero, since it is quite unlikely Hero holds a 5. This being a home game, Hero generally will have a lot of history with the villains. If Hero feels this is a significant risk, then he might be best off checking it down rather than risking reopening the betting. (IE Hero is 'risking' a 100BB pot to try a 25BB value bet. He needs to be somewhat sure the villains aren't going to check-raise bluff him before he tries a bet/fold line.)
DrStrange
I agree with this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gedanken
I am folding the river no way no how. After we checked back the turn, villain with a set or straight or even 2 pair is not checking to us. A river checkraise is extremely suspicious and I'll call it every time.
If you think villain is that tricky that he can checkraise the river with a nutty hand, don't bet the river yourself, since the upside is so marginal to begin with.
That said, I value bet this river. I also just shove, which is around 3/4 pot, and might be interpreted more easily as a bluff than if I bet 25bb. 25bb only leaves villains a 1/4 pot shove, so they won't be inclined to bluff.
Well, I opted to c-bet 25bb like the Dr. suggested. Villain c/r me all-in (another 55bb to call)
Only hand which made sense for a straight was 55 and I can't see him checking twice here with that just to c/r the river. Same reasoning with sets. So I call.
Spoiler:
He had 33
Big risk on his part for losing value having checked twice with his turned set, but it was bizzare enough to get me to pay off with he put me on which was an overpair.
Back to the drawing board....
give you and villain the cards you held in this hand. Deal out a 964r flop. Each of you ante $40.
Now deal a turn and river at random from the deck. Villain can choose at any time to put you all-in for another $80 (you can't fold), or he can check it down.
I like checking for pot control on turn. Here's my thinking on the river (with math).
Let's assume a distribution for villain something like this:
20%: straight/set/2-pair
10%: AA/KK
50%: pairs we beat (JJ/TT/T9, etc.)
20%: bluffing hands (AK/AQ/JT/sheer randomness)
Let's also assume you each have 100bb behind with a 100bb pot. If you check it back, your EV is 70 BB.
If you bet 30 BB, he'll fold his weakest pairs and most of his bluffing hands (he's reserving some to C/R bluff). He'll call with AA/KK and most of his pairs. He will raise with made hands and a portion of his bluffs (enough to make you indifferent to calling or folding).
With these assumptions, your EV is 67 BB. If he pays off less on the river with one pair hands, your EV drops.
If you shove, your best scenario is that he only calls with made hands and folds everything weaker, which is 60 BB.
So my thoughts would be to check it down. Your stack size is too big to bet for value. Even if you had only 50 BB left, he'd have to call with more than half of his underpair hands to have the same EV as checking.
Edit: If we assume it's less likely he has a made hand (10%, 60% now underpairs) because he may have bet the river instead of checking, now it's slightly +EV to bet river (82 vs 80 BB). Still shouldn't shove. 10% seems unreasonably low to me, however.
Last edited by findingneema; 07-10-2012 at 04:32 PM.
Reason: Fewer made hands
Im slightly confused by stack sizes because you say you have 100bbs behind after flop and that SB covers, but you bet 25bb and only call 55bb all in?
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Originally Posted by lanyi
Well, I opted to c-bet 25bb like the Dr. suggested. Villain c/r me all-in (another 55bb to call)
That would be 80bb effective, not 100 on river.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lanyi
I don't like this line. Board is dry, best way to get value from weaker hands is bet half pot, especially since I'm IP and board is dry I expect to get looked up more by weaker hands with a "standard 1/2 psb".
I like larger for two reasons:
1. Again depends on your table image, but 3 betting from the button your range could be quite wide. I think you could have a lot of air in your range on that flop and they'll still call a big c-bet with a lot of hands.
2. Your stack size is awkward the turn. If you do standard 1/2 pot you're left with exactly a PSB for the turn. You can't really value bet any amount and fold to a raise on brick turns w/ pot odds, so you might as well set it up better for a shove, i.e. less than a PSB.
I tend to play pretty aggressive though, which I know isn't everyone's style.
RE: as played and the results, sucks cause you probably can't fold on that runout but I feel it's almost impossible that he doesn't have it when he check raises. It would be an insane play on his part onsidering the pot odds we're getting laid and his line, and you said he's competent. That's why I just jam or check behind, saves some self torture
even you said that if he can c/r the river with nut hands pulling this line a check behind is better in your opinion vs a thin value bet.
It's still pretty hard for him to have one of those nutty hands here. My real point is that I don't like b/f, and therefore don't see any reason to bet any less than all-in. The decision is the balance between worse hands he calls with vs better hands he calls with.
Giving him a calling range of 22-KK, A9, we make money from value betting. Add in some 2pr and pr+gutshot hands that got there, and yes, checking looks better. But how many of those check the river? That's the crux. Good news is that it's pretty close. When it's close, I tend to call a LAG. You made enough chips from him preflop and on the flop that you can afford to make a small calling mistake.
I am probably long-run wrong here, but I still like check-check here to manage pot size. Like I said, all you really have is one pair.
Getting validated here is probably a bad thing overall, but I try like hell to not overplay big pairs post flop in cash games, even though it rarely works.
in villains eyes, what is your range on a 3-bet button? how many Ax combos? how many 8-8, 10-9s, 9-8s, etc?
If you think villain sees you as AK & 99+ 3bet from button, then your check check is right. if you think villain gives you wide range (as above), then betting turn and river, or even check turn value bet river is way to go.
with my image I see villain holding A-9 most, then 88, then 10-9 suited, then sets, then 55.
in villains eyes, what is your range on a 3-bet button? how many Ax combos? how many 8-8, 10-9s, 9-8s, etc?
If you think villain sees you as AK & 99+ 3bet from button, then your check check is right. if you think villain gives you wide range (as above), then betting turn and river, or even check turn value bet river is way to go.
with my image I see villain holding A-9 most, then 88, then 10-9 suited, then sets, then 55.
He could see me as being lighter as I am on the BTN, though with CO in the game once he shows interest in the pot I never 3-bet light, not sure if he's aware of that or not.
"SB: decent LAG. The guy is aware of things like equity and pot odds, definitely thinks in terms of ranges and normally has a plan for the hand. IMO one of the guys profiting from the game but I don't keep tabs on others."
Knowing that's his image you have to check the river. He is not getting that deep into the hand with just an over pair even if you did check behind on the turn. Since you put him on a PP and the board ran out 96437 there's no PP that you can beat that would have gone this far and would call you (he won't call with TT or JJ). You're just setting your hand up to be a bluff catcher.
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