Quote:
Originally Posted by Rottersod
Not sure where you get your "$400/hr" number from. I said it was 5% up to $20 max. We have plenty of smaller pots that don't generate the full rake. And when you're playing 5/10 and higher even $20 can be justified when the pots are $1000+. Anyways, it's a good game and a lot of fun the times I've played in it. The host provides lots of goodies like food, alcohol, massage girls, credit (if needed), pro level dealers and equipment and a safe environment.
The money that is going into the pockets of the runners didn't grow on the tree out back. Nothing like illegal tax-free income that can't even be traced from the moment the dealer reaches into the pot to take it, making quick change, going back and forth between pot, felt, tray 6 times in 2 seconds, so you don't know if he made change for that 5 or returned 1 or 2 or none. 5% up to $20 max. Figure 30 hands per hour, $10 per hand average rake. If you think that's high, then consider that the rest of these figures do not include ANY tipping. That's $300/hr. Divided by 8 players on average (sometimes 7, sometimes 9). That's $37.50/hr. In a 5/10 game, you play 100 hands in 3.33 hours, and your share of the rake is $125 per 100 hands. This equals 12.5 big blinds per 100 hands, or 6.25BB/100. So once you overcome that, you have broken even. It is extremely rare to have a post-rake BB/100 of more than 1 or 2 after 100,000 hands (long-haul), so at best you could make 8.25BB/100, of which 6.25BB/100 goes to the house. And for each person at the table who is pulling in 8.25BB/100, there is another person at the table (I am simplifying) who is contributing 8.25BB/100.
You as a solid player make 8.25BB/100, which is $49.50 per hour.
The house takes: 6.25BB/100, which is $37.50 per hour.
Your net profit: 2BB/100, which is $40/100, which is $12 per hour.
The losing player loses $49.50 per hour to subsidize your $12 per hour.
This is unsustainable for very long, and assumes never-ending supply of fish and nobody being better than you and the fish never adjusting and the sharks never honing their attack on you, although some of that is incorporated in the fact that your long term rate just won't go above 1 or 2 tops after rake because people know your style in the long run and have incorporated adjustments for the most part, even the fish.
You cannot expect to win in this kind of game any more than you can expect to win when you buy a scratch-off. It is always a negative EV proposition, but it is theoretically possible to be a long-term winner (if you just run good for life or quit while you're ahead).
The house is laughing all the way to the safe (notice I didn't say bank). They are being paid handsomely for taking the risk of serious criminal charges and jail time.
Any rake makes it difficult to win. $20 rake per pot makes it impossible.