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Beating the rake Beating the rake

11-20-2014 , 05:15 AM
Play a home game. The host provides a good spread. Top shelf premium liquors and craft beers plus the catering is first rate gourmet. There's a masseuse on hand for massages (no happy endings) It's a $200 buy in game minimum. My bar tabs are normally more than that. Generally I break even as far as cashing out 2 out of 5 times I'll walk with an extra 2-300. But it cost me zero for a bar tab which usually run about $400 a person, a dinner that would run another $30-60 since I usually bring a date. Plus a massage for me and my date. That's about the cheapest 4 hour date you can have. Plus chicks dig it when you win so the nightcap is a little extra vigorous.

Last edited by Schmendr1ck; 11-20-2014 at 01:39 PM.
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11-23-2014 , 11:02 AM
I've been playing in two 1/3 games (both have $5 min openings) that pull 10 + 1 since Sept and have had decent results. Not my first experience with underground games but the first in this city. Both share similar player pools but each has 2 or 3 gamblers that will show periodically.

Both games play deep. For example, 4 hours into the game last night there was at least 9k on the table. Lots of gamble. Saw at least 3 AIs PF with 6 high.

I've done a couple of things to adjust.

1. Although theoretically incorrect, I hit and run even when game is good. If I am up more than the dealer has been tipped after 4 or 5 hours I split.
2. I ask dealers to leave the drag on the box til after the hand so I see how much is being pulled. I always sit in the 1 or 10 seat.
3. I try to never call on the river if we are heads up and the pot is under $100. At least not without near nuts.
4. I adjust to table dynamics. Some games I play around 2 hands per hour and go entire sessions without ever calling. Some games I limp in a lot.
5. I wait and don't settle for good edges pre flop. These guys shove crap a lot but even though I know my AJ is good I am not gonna put 500 in pre against a guy with a watch on that costs more than my truck.

Not sure if this is optimal or not but it's working for me. But yeah, find a real home game.
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12-15-2014 , 08:17 AM
Everyone is saying how OP's game is unbeatable, but I still don't understand why it's unbeatable. Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5?

FWIW, most of the games around me are 5% uncapped.
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12-15-2014 , 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Str8Gutter88
Everyone is saying how OP's game is unbeatable, but I still don't understand why it's unbeatable. Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5?

FWIW, most of the games around me are 5% uncapped.
How much money is on the table in a typical night, and what is the average pot size?
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12-15-2014 , 10:52 AM
The game is 1/3 and some are not afraid to lose $1,500. 9 handed so maybe 5K+? AVG pot is prob 50BB

If I'm better than all the players, I'm just trying to figure out why it's bad with this much rake.

Last edited by Str8Gutter88; 12-15-2014 at 11:09 AM.
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12-15-2014 , 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Str8Gutter88
Everyone is saying how OP's game is unbeatable, but I still don't understand why it's unbeatable. Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5?

FWIW, most of the games around me are 5% uncapped.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Str8Gutter88
The game is 1/3 and some are not afraid to lose $1,500. 9 handed so maybe 5K+? AVG pot is prob 50BB

If I'm better than all the players, I'm just trying to figure out why it's bad with this much rake.
Just do some back-of-the-napkin math. OP's game is 10% up to $15, let's assume 25-30 hands per hour, average pot is 50bb so average rake is $15 per hand.

Conservative estimate: 25 hands per hour, $15 rake = $375/hour coming off the table. (Actually closer to $420 if you assume $1 dealer tip per hand and $2 per player per hour to the waitress.)
Aggressive estimate: 30 hands per hour, $15 rake = $450/hour coming off the table ($500 with tips).

Can you beat a 1/3 game that has $400-500 per hour coming off the table?
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12-15-2014 , 12:38 PM
Rake is an odd animal. If the game is juicy enough, you don't even notice the 5% you're paying to win each pot. But over time, in most games it will drive away the weaker players.

That's not a guarantee, of course. Some players will lose money endlessly. Those players might be necessary for any game to last, but they are more essential in a raked game.

The rake means it is no longer a zero sum game. Every pot won is reduced by the rake. Break even players are now losing players. Losing players lose more. Winning players win less.

But that doesn't mean you can't make it work for you. It means you have to be that much better than the field.
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12-15-2014 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
Just do some back-of-the-napkin math. OP's game is 10% up to $15, let's assume 25-30 hands per hour, average pot is 50bb so average rake is $15 per hand.

Conservative estimate: 25 hands per hour, $15 rake = $375/hour coming off the table. (Actually closer to $420 if you assume $1 dealer tip per hand and $2 per player per hour to the waitress.)
Aggressive estimate: 30 hands per hour, $15 rake = $450/hour coming off the table ($500 with tips).

Can you beat a 1/3 game that has $400-500 per hour coming off the table?
What's the rake at the casinos you play in? Is it so much greater than 5% of an average 50 BB pot, which at 1/3 is about $8?
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12-15-2014 , 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eneely
What's the rake at the casinos you play in? Is it so much greater than 5% of an average 50 BB pot, which at 1/3 is about $8?
5% max $5 plus a $2 jackpot drop, so $7 max per hand. No flop no drop.

At 2/5, we hit the max most of the time, so I'd say $175/hour give or take a few bucks.
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12-15-2014 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
5% max $5 plus a $2 jackpot drop, so $7 max per hand. No flop no drop.

At 2/5, we hit the max most of the time, so I'd say $175/hour give or take a few bucks.
I can assume 1/3 is the same? If so not too different from the 5% rake Str8Gutter88 asked about, assuming the rake would almost always be taken, and 50BB is the average pot size. It's a bit of an apple/orange situation, but not so radically different. Maybe $200-250 per hour.

Are we making the same point? 5% is not terrible, but 10% is.

I'd much rather see a cap, though.
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12-17-2014 , 06:04 AM
I'm also from the Houston area and it would be nice to start up my own game. There's a few games I know of, but either the rake is bad or the dealers are terrible.

The few 1/2's I go to I have ended up winning every month so far since I've been putting in more time. (10% minimum with 13 avg cap) Though, I imagine I would be more profitable at the casinos in Lake Charles.
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