UTG was obviously not a very good player (68/0 after 19 hands) but I have no idea if this call is profitable or not. To make this call I have to be good 44.5% of the time, which I think I am, but does an obviously not very good player bluff here enough? I am not sure.
This is a tricky spot on the flop - we have tptk with spr of only about 2 - I think we're def committed against UTG+2 as he is so loose - more worried about what SB is cold calling with oop - do you have a read on him?
If SB is a solid player we could give a range of 99+, AQs+, AKo
I think I like a cbet - fold if Sb comes over the top but play for stacks vs UTG+2 - we are in bad shape against the range that SB continues on this flop.
As played - shove the turn - I don't like giving so many free cards
As played this is clearly a call on the river - your pot odds are wrong - you need only 31% against his range to call - he can still be v betting worse kings as well as bluffs
This is a tricky spot on the flop - we have tptk with spr of only about 2 - I think we're def committed against UTG+2 as he is so loose - more worried about what SB is cold calling with oop - do you have a read on him?
If SB is a solid player we could give a range of 99+, AQs+, AKo
I think I like a cbet - fold if Sb comes over the top but play for stacks vs UTG+2 - we are in bad shape against the range that SB continues on this flop.
As played - shove the turn - I don't like giving so many free cards
As played this is clearly a call on the river - your pot odds are wrong - you need only 31% against his range to call - he can still be v betting worse kings as well as bluffs
Correct me if I am wrong but pots odds needed = 64980/(80800+64980) = 44.5%
Last edited by Kev1498; 01-08-2017 at 03:29 PM.
Reason: typo
I think checking and betting flop are both fine options.
The Coldcall from SB had me worried too when I saw it. Against him we're either way ahead or way behind.
If UTG+2 is an agressive player postflop, I prefer a check over a cbet.
That way we keep his bluffs in that he might take a stab on the turn and/or river. And against him I will not be folding here since he might be valuebetting worse Kx hands.
If he has Qx, so be it, but more often he will have a pile of trash with that wide of a preflop-range (he might even call your 3bet with his entire range, since the SB got in there too, depends on villian though).
In both options if the SB calls or starts betting turn I would be worried, and probably abondon ship.
I wouldn't be too worried about draws. The hands that have draws are either blocked by us or we block their outs. And will only contain a small percentage of UTG+2s range.
These people also don't look at what hands to bluff with or not, so their bluffrange (if they are agressive) is usualy way out of line. What would make this a profitable call.