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What to do with 99 What to do with 99

01-30-2017 , 05:35 PM
I was on Ignition in a $11 MTT turbo with around 900 players and the winner got $1900 second got around $1300. We were down to 12 or 13 and I was 3rd or 4th in chips with about 770k.

Blinds 25k-50k Ante: 5k (Turbo 5 minute levels)
Me (BB): 770k Call with 99
SB: Folds
Button: Folds
Cutoff: 710k goes All in with AK of hearts
Early position: Fold
Early position: Fold

He hit a King on the flop and held up. I was crippled finished 10th. At first I was going to fold the 99. But I looked at the blinds which were just huge and I only had 25 big blinds. I'm still sort of conflicted on what I should've done. My friend said he would've only called with JJ at the worst. I'd appreciate the feedback.
What to do with 99 Quote
01-30-2017 , 06:12 PM
I don't play too many turbos but with 25bbs and a co shove, this looks like a snap call!
What to do with 99 Quote
01-30-2017 , 10:56 PM
The cutoff had 720k which was an above avg stack. We were like 3 and 4 in chips with 13 left when the hand happened. During the preceding couple minutes he'd go all in with what I thought were big hands. Also if he had a decent hand instead of the monster he had, I think he would've just raised a little and not gone all in. So basically I put him on a big hand. But I knew it wasn't AA through QQ bc he probably would've just raised a little. So I knew he had a big hand but not too big. He didn't want action with his AKhh, just to pick up the blinds. I was hoping it was AK or 88. But this was definitely a big hand. I guess with that in mind should I still have called?
What to do with 99 Quote
01-31-2017 , 07:12 AM
Nobody knows how to play 99. It's a well known fact. Ask anybody, even Dwan if you can find him.
What to do with 99 Quote
01-31-2017 , 09:13 AM
the hand is 14bb eff, not 25bb. very easy call 14bb deep. at 25bb it depends a bit on payjumps, other stacks etc.
What to do with 99 Quote
01-31-2017 , 09:27 AM
You have to remember when analyzing spots like this, it is not about what hand the player actually turned over, but the entire range of hands he could have and how your hand plays against his entire range. With 14 BBs, the CO is supposed to be shoving a range of hands something like:

29.7%: 22+, A2s+, A4o+, K7s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s.

(*My source for this shoving range is the FTT Push/Fold App).

Agaisnt that range 99, is doing pretty good:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com

CO 39.74% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A4o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
BB 60.26% { 99 }

Even if we trim the weaker hands out of this range 99 is still doing good.

Next you can even analyze to see how tight their range has to be for 99 to be a fold. You have to call 660k to win 815k. Your pot odds are 1.2:1. Your break even point is 45%, but since it is near the final table bubble, you'll want to set a pretty decent edge, so set the edge at 50%. You should call any time 99 is 50% or better against the entire range of hands he may have.

At a range of 8% (66+, ATs+, AJ+, and KQs) it is a fold, getting about 49% equity against this range. Even then it is a close fold. If he is shoving anything more than this, it is a call. If you add only 55, or AT as well, it is a call, add KQ.

That tight range is significantly tighter than the range of hands he is supposed to be shoving here. So I would safely say this is a call.
What to do with 99 Quote
01-31-2017 , 12:42 PM
Guys, thank you so much for the feedback. Honestly the blinds might have been 15k-30k and I had 25bb but it's great to know that even with 25bb it's the right call with 99 even if I put him on 2 overs.
What to do with 99 Quote
01-31-2017 , 04:57 PM
I'm folding this for 25bb and probably puke calling for 14bb.

The above breakdown does not account for ICM which is important at the FT bubble of a 1k player tournament.

If he's open shoving 25bb it's unlikely that he has a pair worse than 99 you're usually going to be dominated or flipping.
What to do with 99 Quote
01-31-2017 , 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind324
Guys, thank you so much for the feedback. Honestly the blinds might have been 15k-30k and I had 25bb but it's great to know that even with 25bb it's the right call with 99 even if I put him on 2 overs.
No, that's not the right way to think about it. You have to think about ranges of hands. This is how weak players attempt hand reading. And I'm guessing that since you are taking the time to read and post, you want to go beyond the basic ways that weak players think about hands.

Get a program called Equilabs and start playing around with that for about 15 minutes a day. Look at hand ranges and start thinking about poker in hand ranges and not trying to pin down a specific hand. Hand reading is not about "I put you on AK ..." It is about understanding all of the possible holding a player can have in a certain situation and comparing your hand versus his entire set of possible hands he can have based on the play of the hand.
What to do with 99 Quote

      
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