Value bet this river? - MTT Poker Strategy

mattywein · 06-28-2012, 06:22 PM

Its a flushing paired board and I have turned a straight.

Party, $5.40 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13367022

BB: 5,968 (19.9 bb)
SB: 14,786 (49.3 bb)
MP2: 7,140 (23.8 bb)
UTG+2: 9,241 (30.8 bb)
MP3: 18,174 (60.6 bb)
MP1: 6,470 (21.6 bb)
Hero (CO): 15,427 (51.4 bb)
UTG+1: 23,075 (76.9 bb)
BTN: 34,449 (114.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J

K

UTG+1 calls 300, 4 folds, Hero raises to 600, BTN folds, SB raises to 900, BB folds, UTG+1 calls 600, Hero calls 300

Flop: (3,270) 3

Q

A

(3 players)
SB bets 300, UTG+1 calls 300, Hero calls 300

Turn: (4,170) T

(3 players)
SB bets 300, UTG+1 calls 300, Hero raises to 2,685, SB folds, UTG+1 calls 2,385

River: (9,840) 3

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Am I beating enough here to value bet? If so how much?

Oxzy · 06-28-2012, 07:33 PM

I bet ~3,5k sucks if he c/r though

desperad0oo7 · 06-28-2012, 07:50 PM

raise flop imo

b/f 6k otr

roscoe91 · 06-28-2012, 07:54 PM

i'd check it.

V-Delaney · 06-28-2012, 08:05 PM

900 pre
5,000 river - checking is awful

AKA47 · 06-28-2012, 10:03 PM

Bet folding the river around half pot.

**ssnyc** · 06-28-2012, 11:23 PM

Pre makes my eyes bleed...
The suggestion of checking the river makes my eyes bleed worse.
On river I go wtf 7777 call...there are so few backdrop flushes and so many more TP/two pair combos

Luckymonkey · 06-28-2012, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssnyc

Pre makes my eyes bleed...
The suggestion of checking the river makes my eyes bleed worse.
On river I go wtf 7777 call...there are so few backdrop flushes and so many more TP/two pair combos

+1

o0psIrivrdiT · 06-28-2012, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssnyc

Pre makes my eyes bleed...
The suggestion of checking the river makes my eyes bleed worse.
On river I go wtf 7777 call...there are so few backdrop flushes and so many more TP/two pair combos

+2

kamikaze baby · 06-30-2012, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssnyc

there are so few backdrop flushes and so many more TP/two pair combos

I find this idea bizarre that there are somehow a lot of 2pr combos in villain's range. Villain limped UTG. What 2pr combos do we expect villain to have? Not AQ, surely, given preflop, and QT just got counterfeited. A3 suddenly beats us on the river. So AT is the only 2pr combo we can reasonably expect to see that we beat.

Villain just called a monster raise on the turn, and there aren't many hands villain can limp pre and then call that turn bet with. Suited Ad hands are certainly in that range, as is KJ I guess. But villain would have to be pretty terrible to be calling on the turn with A9o though and would need to be even worse to call on the river. If you think villain is terrible, then the river is a very clear value bet. But I'm having trouble thinking of hands besides AT that ever pay us off here if villain is remotely competent, and value betting hoping to get paid off by one hand is kind of absurd.

Tommy Ho · 06-30-2012, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamikaze baby

I find this idea bizarre that there are somehow a lot of 2pr combos in villain's range. Villain limped UTG. What 2pr combos do we expect villain to have? Not AQ, surely, given preflop, and QT just got counterfeited. A3 suddenly beats us on the river. So AT is the only 2pr combo we can reasonably expect to see that we beat.

Villain just called a monster raise on the turn, and there aren't many hands villain can limp pre and then call that turn bet with. Suited Ad hands are certainly in that range, as is KJ I guess. But villain would have to be pretty terrible to be calling on the turn with A9o though and would need to be even worse to call on the river. If you think villain is terrible, then the river is a very clear value bet. But I'm having trouble thinking of hands besides AT that ever pay us off here if villain is remotely competent, and value betting hoping to get paid off by one hand is kind of absurd.

+1 ... Nice post

Luckymonkey · 06-30-2012, 11:25 AM

UTG played this hand absolutely terribly no matter what cards he had. You can't say that it is unreasonable to play AQ like this, therefore he is unlikely to have it. That applies to practically any 2 cards. Flopping 2 pair with A3 and flatting a min raise on the flop and turn makes sense? Absolutely not. Put him on a huge range and value bet the river.

roscoe91 · 06-30-2012, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamikaze baby

I find this idea bizarre that there are somehow a lot of 2pr combos in villain's range. Villain limped UTG. What 2pr combos do we expect villain to have? Not AQ, surely, given preflop, and QT just got counterfeited. A3 suddenly beats us on the river. So AT is the only 2pr combo we can reasonably expect to see that we beat.

Villain just called a monster raise on the turn, and there aren't many hands villain can limp pre and then call that turn bet with. Suited Ad hands are certainly in that range, as is KJ I guess. But villain would have to be pretty terrible to be calling on the turn with A9o though and would need to be even worse to call on the river. If you think villain is terrible, then the river is a very clear value bet. But I'm having trouble thinking of hands besides AT that ever pay us off here if villain is remotely competent, and value betting hoping to get paid off by one hand is kind of absurd.

+1

I would probably value-bet a bad villain but i would need a few reads like knowing at least he's not the aggro random type who decides to check-raise me with nothing on that river.

V-Delaney · 07-01-2012, 03:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamikaze baby

But villain would have to be pretty terrible to be calling on the turn with A9o though and would need to be even worse to call on the river.

Villain is obv awful...

We lose to flush combos only, and bad villains will lead them otr a lot of the time (I assume villain checked to us otr).

Not betting here would be seriously retarded

osefiwin · 07-01-2012, 04:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamikaze baby

But I'm having trouble thinking of hands besides AT that ever pay us off here if villain is remotely competent, and value betting hoping to get paid off by one hand is kind of absurd.

Ever heard of this remotely competent player who limp calls a 3bet preflop and then proceeds to flat any bet postflop regardless of sizing?