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Two pair river bet fold

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07-20-2017 , 05:42 AM

blank0909

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 379

What is villain's utg limp range that doesn't raise turn, then raises small on the river.
65 hands 25/2
Given odds otr looks like a call.
Thoughts?

Poker Stars, $4 Buy-in (250/500 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37796277

UTG+2: 11,247 (22.5 bb)
MP1: 19,340 (38.7 bb)
MP2: 6,827 (13.7 bb)
MP3: 9,465 (18.9 bb)
CO: 10,466 (20.9 bb)
BTN: 9,004 (18 bb)
SB: 11,179 (22.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 22,614 (45.2 bb)
UTG+1: 9,233 (18.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5

UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls 500, 5 folds, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (1,770) T

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks

Turn: (1,770) 5

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 1,050, UTG+2 calls 1,050, SB folds

River: (3,870) 6

(2 players)
Hero bets 1,350, UTG+2 raises to 3,500, Hero folds

Spoiler:

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07-20-2017 , 07:33 AM

daviid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,639

pretty disgusting spot indeed but i dont see how we could ever fold to that sizing when the only better hands we could have are 55, maybe A6 and maybe KQ although the latter ones might even play differently on earlier streets. i dislike your river sizing, would bet 2kish for sure.

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07-20-2017 , 08:18 AM

Darth_Maul

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 4,434

Yeah I think it's one of those spots where you might have to call knowing you're no good. AT would likely make a move earlier, and you have an Ace blocker too. JT also likely makes a move earlier. The most likely culprits are 66 and A6 (which you block), and maybe 55 (which you also block).

I don't know, you're getting such a good price but I'm having difficulty putting anything in his range you beat.

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07-20-2017 , 08:32 AM

daniel.ancines

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 2

The villain's range in this spot is large because the limp pre flop, so A6 could be on it, but your size on the river were so small, the 1,350 told villain that you have a weak hand. I think 2100 is a good bet size. IMHO, bet 2,100 and see what villain's does.

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07-20-2017 , 08:44 AM

Glaciem

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 1,830

sigh call due to the odds.

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07-20-2017 , 10:35 AM

robert_utk

Not From the UK

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 4,822

Super sick spot. Can we find a fold since its a MTT? Its a cash call but maybe a tourney fold. Turn bet size was good, river bet size was for value and when value bets get raised in small stakes you are usually screwed.

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07-20-2017 , 11:02 AM

daviid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,639

honestly the thought process when approaching this spot shouldnt rly be about what hand villain will show up with in this spot. its near impossible to narrow down a recs limping range from ep 22bb eff. the question should much rather be how high up in our own range we are/wether we can have better hands and what odds we are being laid. hypothetically if villain jammed over ops riverbet it becomes a much much tougher decision because we might be able to get away from anything but 55 and KQ but as played folding is certainly a losing play.

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07-20-2017 , 11:08 AM

robert_utk

Not From the UK

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 4,822

But if A5 is among the very best hands we could have, near top range, then maybe our entire range is too weak on the river as played? We are basically bluff catching on such a board. Yes river bet was too small, but if we did bet 2k and got raised, then could we fold?

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07-20-2017 , 11:13 AM

robert_utk

Not From the UK

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 4,822

So when we checked flop, did we cap ourselves and ask for all this trouble later in the hand? That seems to be where we went wrong. Second to act, we hit our ace and SB checked to us. That should have been a decent size bet.

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07-21-2017 , 06:13 AM

#10

Afteryastack

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 421

Cant find a fold to this sizing either

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