Blinds 75-150, I am sitting on the btn with A10 with a stack size of 24bbs. Action folded around to the cutoff with a stack of 56bbs, he has been really tight with a 14vp and 9pfr over 100+hands. He raises to 375. I call (should I 3bet here?). SB and BB fold. Heads up to the flop.
Flop is:
726

Cutoff bets 666 (2/3 pot), I smooth call (raise here?)

Turn is: 2

He shoves all-in, having me covered.

?

He had been playing open-ended straight draws very aggressively which I base off the only 2 hands he showed down. That is my only read other than him playing very TAG. Also I hesitated to 3bet PF due to his 0% fold to a 3bet over 9 hands, 6 of which he 4bet back at the 3bettor. If I had 3bet and faced a 4bet what would be the correct play then? Thoughts?

Preflop: Shove. sure he's tight, but he's opening in LP, even tight players may open as much as 30% there. What would be interesting to find out would be the sacks sizes of the blinds. If all players are sitting with similar stacks as you do, it may affect his open range.

Flop: Definitely shove.

Turn: You need to call 2559 to win 4886. So you need to win 35%. Against a hand range that contains suited connectors with a flush draw, OESD, top pair combos and above, you have only 30% equity.


Hand 0: 30.282% { AdTd }
Hand 1: 69.718% { 66+, 22, A7s, KdQd, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, T7s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 6d5d, 5d4d, A7o }

So now I think you have to fold, unless you have a read on him that he will double barrel with air OOP and based on your description of him in the OP, this seems unlikely.

I like flat pre vs tight guy.
Just add how much he was stealing. Some generally tight players are stealing 15-20% of hands, others can reach 50% mark from Co-BTN.

I think shoving otf makes your hand a bit face up, but not a big choice this shallow.
If you were deeper I`d like r/c to set up shove ott more. If he`s flatting shove every turn.

flat pre is the worst option vs tight players, shove or fold (i'd f old here)

postflop is a nobrainer r/c get it in OTF vs a cbet and enjoy your equity.

Yea either fold or shove pre. With your reads I doubt he opens wide enough or folds enough to make a shove +EV so fold.

Flop is an easy shove.

Even in the CO? Even though he's a 14/9 I can't imagine his range being so tight from an obvious steal spot. Further, nits don't call often. Further a typical nit who tries to steal does not defend their steal often enough. Even if he is only stealing with top 15%, he may still fold 66% of the time and only call off with a range like AQ and 99.

I can`t totally agree w/ that. Good tight players defend their raises well enough.
Furo, why don`t like flatting at that spot w/ suited hand?

Shoving is exploitable by tight players and they don`t often open enough hands to make shoving w/ marginal hands profitable.

If you have stats running, the most helpful one would be his steal % in this kind of spot. I can pretty much guarantee you it's way higher than 9%, especially sitting on 50+ bb's.

I like 3betting here, I guess we aren't quite deep enough to 3bet small, so I'd shove. As played pre, get it in on that flop fo' sho.

fold pre:
he can open something like this:
Hand 0: 54.307% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 45.693% { ATs }

I would have thought 3b shipping 24bbs pre with AT is a bit spewy, no matter how wide he's opening from the cutoff.

So you think he's only opening 12% in late position? Look at all of your PT3 or HEM stats on every player you have with similar stats. Tell me how many TAG players you have with a decent sample who steal 10% versus TAGS who steal 20%+.

Any time your stack is 5 - 10x the size of the opening bet, shipping light with fold equity is becoming standard.

How much do you need?

Its pre ante. If he only calls 99+,AQ he has to open 20% for it to be a profitable shove. Think he calls wider than 99+,AQ tho.

Its obv going to be close and arguable but I think I find a better spot to get it in.

when he shoves what will be call by CO???
this?:


Hand 0: 63.082% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 36.918% { ATs }

or something like this: AQ+,99+,AJs+,KQs